02678 Representing global climate change, adaptation and mitigation

02678 Representing global climate change, adaptation and mitigation

17 population in the Arab world will double by the year 2030. At that time, domestic and industrial water demand will be 360 million m3 day-‘; meanwhi...

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17 population in the Arab world will double by the year 2030. At that time, domestic and industrial water demand will be 360 million m3 day-‘; meanwhile, electrical power consumption will be 4.5 trillion kWh day-‘. According, the Advanced Inherent Safe Nuclear Power Plants adapted for water-electricity co-generation could meet the demand, as a clean energy source.

03lO2677 Path-dependency and input substitution: implications for energy pohcy modelling Kuper, G. H. and van Soest, D. P. Energy Economics, 2003, 25, (4), 397407. In most policy-oriented energy models, the effectiveness of energy policy instruments crucially depends both on the values of the substitution elasticities between the various inputs and on the rates of technological progress. In this paper it is argued that due to the fixed-cost nature of adjustments to relative price changes, these technological parameters are affected by past developments. Failing to account for the role of history will result in biased parameter estimates, and hence the implication for energy policy modelling is that the estimation period should be carefully selected. An empirical illustration using data for the Netherlands is provided.

03/02676 Representing and mitigation

global climate change,

adaptation

Barker, T. et al. Global Environmental Change, 2003, 13, (1) 1-6. The diagrammatic representation of climate change, adaptation and mitigation is important in conceptualizing the problem, identifying important feedbacks, and communicating between disciplines. The Synthesis Report of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report, 2001, uses a ‘cause and effect’ approach developed in the integrated assessment literature. This viewpoint reviews this approach and suggests an alternative, based on stocks and flows. The alternative gives a much richer representation of the problem so that it includes the enhanced greenhouse effect, ancillary benefits of mitigation, the distinction between climate-change and other stresses on natural systems, and a more refined distinction between adaptation and mitigation.

03102679 Requirements century nuclear energy

for nuclear energy in the 21st as a sustainable energy source

Kessler, G. Progress in Nuclear Energy, 2002, 40, (3-4), 309-325. Nuclear energy must compete against other energy technologies in the 21st century. It must be economical and it must be proven that it fulfills the conditions for sutainability. This means that the requirements of no short term depletion of resources - extremely low emission of noxious or radioactive substances to the environment - extremely low release of radioactivity from a nuclear plant in case of the most severe accidents and-the present very long-term problem of high active waste must be transformed into a few hundred years problem through destruction of plutonium, transmutation of the minor actinides and the most important very long-lived fission products.

03/02660 Roles and prospect energy supply strategy

of nuclear

power in China’s

Wang, D. and Lu, Y. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 2002, 218, (l-3), 3-l 2. China’s annual energy demand is expected to amount to 3360 million tons of oil equivalent (toe) in 2050, the target year for the nation’s economic development to reach the level of medium-developed countries. The future energy supply, doubtless to go through a substantial increase and necessary mix shift with potential significant environmental impacts, will continue to rely on the domestic sources with coal-dominance but diversified mixes, in which nuclear power makes up a reasonable share. The large-scale development of nuclear energy is essential and promising, with the total installed capacity expectedly over 200-300 GW around 2050, and will be an effective response measure to mitigate the energy-derived environmental pollution and guarantee the national energy security. China is a developing country with the largest population in the world. The energy production had achieved remarkable progress over the last half century, particularly since the initiatives of reform and opening to the outside world in the late 197Os, and energy demand to fuel the continued socio-economic growth has been largely met. The current energy consumption of China is 896 Mtoe, accounting for about 11% of the world’s total, the second largest energy consumer in the globe. However, the energy supply will face even tougher challenges in terms of demand increase, mix shift and potential environmental impacts to be posed by a sustained fast-growing economy in light of China’s blueprint for future development. With the switch-over from the centrally planned economy to the socialist market economy and the gradual integration of China’s energy trade into the international markets, the imported crude oil in 2000 amounted to 70.265 Mt, about 3.5% of the global petroleum trade, the long-term energy security for China would have great regional and global implications. It is, therefore, of great significance to make a deep study of the role and

Energy

(supplies,

poky,

economics,

forecasts)

prospect of nuclear power as an essential component of China’s future energy mix, so as to develop a sound and sustainable energy security strategy.

03/02661 Strategic environmental policy when the governments are threatened by relocation Greaker, M. Resource and Energy Economics, 2003, 25, (2), 141-154. This paper analyses how the threat of relocation influences environmental policy. The stringency of environmental policy is determined in a game between two governments. There is one firm in each jurisdiction, and both firms threaten to relocate their production to the other jurisdiction. Because there is asymmetric information about the cost of relocation, the governments do not know the credibility of the threat. The outcome of this game was compared with the outcome of a game in which relocation is not possible. It was found that the threat of relocation can increase both the level of environmental regulation and welfare. The profit tax level proves to be the most decisive for the result; that is, the higher the profit tax level, the lower the level of environmental regulation,

~3/V~i2

Sustainable

development

and energy policy

in

PBez, B. G. The Journal of Energy and De~~elopmmt, 2002, 21. (1). 7987. The immediate effect of a price increase would be the rationalization of oil product use and promotion of cleaner energy options. In fact, from the US Environmental Protection Agency estimates noted earlier of $170 billion to comply officially with all US federal regulations to protect the environment, probably at least half is due to petroleum derivatives or systems energized by oil products, which may mean that if a smaller amount is collected, for example, one-third of $170 billion (or $56.67 billion), it may represent an increase of a little more than $4 in the price of consumed oil. With this approach, the sovereign consumer economically will command a better range of energy options and better energy-consuming goods to conserve a valuable energy mix. At the same time, the environment would benefit. The level of oil-tax collection could be raised over the former $4 increase if the total environmental cost is estimated to be at least 10% of the gross national product. Then, many of the environmentally preferred options would be more attractive because of higher priced energy and better access to the collected funds; the earth and its natural systems also would benefit. It is becoming clear that the increase of carbon dioxide (COz) concentration in the atmosphere is an element in global climate change. Therefore, it is prudent to initiate action to reduce such emissions. If governments wait until the effects of CO2 emissions are unambiguous, then the scale of the task will have increased vastly. Interestingly, it appears that limiting global use of fossil fuels may come largely through concerns of global warming; sufficient supplies of gas, oil, and coal exist for future exploitation depending, of course, on price levels, finding costs, and the cost of delivery to the consumer. Due to the fact that most of the growth in both energy demand and in emissions will soon come from the poorer nations, governments of the industrialized bloc (the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) may need to increase assistance to the developing world in meeting its energy needs by leapfrogging to clean technologies. If developing countries like Mexico invest in yesterday’s ‘dirty’ and inefficient technologies, they will be locked into them for decades to come and with concomitant global consequences. In addition, there is a need to look for a systematic way to implement a complete analysis of the supply system of the energy and material flows as the one given by the life-cycle assessment; otherwise, we may be lured into thinking that our present way of life is sustainable.

03102663 Sustainable production and consumption systems - cooperation for change: asseasing and simulating the willingness of the firm to adopt/develop cleaner technologies. The case of the In-bond industry northern Mexico

in

Corral, C. M. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2003, 1 I, (4), 41 I-426. Over the last decade, literature on the ‘greening’ of industry and environmental policy has provided numerous important insights into the determinants of the firm’s innovative behaviour in cleaner technologies. However, this literature still lacks empirically tested theoretical models. This paper contributes to fill this gap proposing a definitional system that enables the testing of hypotheses of dependence between willingness to innovate in cleaner technologies and its determinants, and to explore the conditions under which the firms’ innovative behaviour could be fostered. Regression and simulation outcomes indicate, against the general wisdom, that stringent environmental regulation without consideration to the dynamics of technical change, and environmental and economic risk perceptions in the part of firms would play against the promotion of innovation in cleaner production. Fuel

and

Energy

Abstracts

November

2003

425