Progress of Chinese electric vehicles industrialization in 2015: A review

Progress of Chinese electric vehicles industrialization in 2015: A review

Applied Energy 188 (2017) 529–546 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Applied Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy Progr...

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Applied Energy 188 (2017) 529–546

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Applied Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy

Progress of Chinese electric vehicles industrialization in 2015: A review Jiuyu Du a,⇑, Danhua Ouyang b a b

State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China

h i g h l i g h t s  The international trend for PEV technologies and industry are reviewed.  A triple-perspective review method is presented to evaluate Chinese PEVs industry.  The accurate results are presented by feasible detailed classification method for PEV.  Industrialization evolution rules are obtained by massive data for PEVs.  The industrialization and policy impact of five types of PEV are clarified.

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history: Received 9 August 2016 Received in revised form 8 November 2016 Accepted 30 November 2016

Keywords: Electric vehicles Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles Charging infrastructure Traction battery Incentive policies

a b s t r a c t Recently, China has been facing energy security and urban air pollution challenges. The development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is considered an optimal technological route for solving such problems. By the end of 2015, China had become world’s largest plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market; however, the core technologies associated with PEVs remain less competitive in the world marketplace. Thus, determining the global trend and national development laws is very important for the Chinese government to draft long-term technological strategies and lead the NEV industry. In this study, the international technological trend is analyzed and industrialization progresses of top global countries are compared. NEV development is reviewed through a detailed classification and a triple-perspective method to determine the industrialization rules. The review indicates the following. (i) China’s NEV market penetration, particularly for commercial electric vehicles, is dominated by state policies. The subsidy policy has a significant influence on powertrain options; therefore, the current incentive polices should be optimized. (ii) The range-extended-type plug-in hybrid electric cars have been verified as the optimal roadmap, and plug-in hybrid electric sports utility vehicles hold great promise in the future Chinese market. (iii) Micro-electric cars dominate the electric car market and are expected to be commercialized first when the government subsidy phases out. (iv) The industry has grown rapidly and the charging infrastructure construction can keep up with the progress of PEV market penetration. The post-EV market (such as battery and vehicle recycling) must be considered in advance. Ó 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contents 1. 2.

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Overview of global electric vehicles industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1. Review of incentives for PEVs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2. Technological progress and trend of PEVs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3. Global PEV industrialization progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

530 531 531 532 533

Abbreviations: NEV, new energy vehicle; PEV, plug-in electric vehicle; PEC, plug-in electric car; BEV, battery electric vehicle; BEC, battery electric car; PHEC, plug-in hybrid electric car; BEB, battery electric bus; PHEB, plug-in hybrid electric bus; BSEV, battery special electric vehicle; CAAM, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers; MOF, Ministry of Finance; MOST, Ministry of Science and Technology; MIIT, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Industry; MOHURD, Housing and Urban-Rural Development; SDPC, National Development and Reform Commission; AC, alternating current; DC, direct current; NCM, Li(NiCoMn)O2. ⇑ Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Du). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.11.129 0306-2619/Ó 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

530

4.

5.

6.

7.

Overall progress of Chinese NEV industrialization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1. Definition and classification of NEV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2. Progress analysis of Chinese NEV industrialization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3. Challenges and solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Progress of plug-in electric cars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1. Progress of battery electric cars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.1. Policies assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.2. Industrialization progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2. Progress of plug-in hybrid electric cars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1. Policies assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.2. Industrialization progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Progress of plug-in commercial electric vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1. Progress of electric buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.1. Progress of battery electric buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.2. Progress of plug-in hybrid electric buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2. Progress of battery special electric vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.1. Policy assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.2. Progress of industrialization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Charging infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1. Supporting policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2. Progress of infrastructure construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Conclusions and discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2. Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

As the largest automotive output and sale country in the world, China is facing several challenges. First, the conflict between the rapid growth of automotive ownership and national energy security is becoming increasingly severe [1]. In 2015, automotive sales reached 24.59 million, whereas car ownership reached 172 million [2]. At the same time, foreign oil dependence is increased to 60.2% [3], as shown in Fig. 1. Second, the rapid spread of private passenger cars has aggravated urban air pollution [4]. The corresponding research show that vehicle tailpipe emissions contribute to 22% of the PM2.5 emissions in Beijing [5]. Moreover, although China has become the largest automotive production and sales country in the world, it has been falling far behind advanced automotive countries with respect to core technologies for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle.

200

vehicle sales and ownership (Million)

70

Sales ownership foreign crude oil dependence

180 160

52 55

140 120

40

42.9

44.7

46.5

47.9

534 534 534 536 536 536 536 537 539 539 539 539 539 539 541 541 541 541 542 542 542 543 543 543 544 544

Relevant research results show that new energy vehicles (NEVs) can effectively reduce urban air pollution and energy security for transportation [6], developing electric vehicles (EVs) is necessary to solve the problems of sustainable transportation and make China leading position in automotive industry. Therefore, the development of NEVs is considered as a national development strategy [7–10]. A policy support system has been established to promote market penetration in both the public and private sectors. Under the government support, Chinese EV industry has developed greatly and is moving from being a niche market into a developing phase. China is a young and very strong car market, so this offers the e-mobility new chances [11]. The years 2016 to 2020 will be critical if China is to become the world’s leader in the EV industry. For policy-makers, it is useful to understand the major social, economic, and policy drivers of electric vehicle adoption [12]. It will be very important to scientifically program Chinese national NEV

1. Introduction

60.2 56.5

57.9

58.1

59.6

energy security boundary

60

50

40

100 30

80 60

20

40 10 20 0

0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fig. 1. Chinese automotive market and foreign crude oil dependence.

foreign crude oil dependence (%)

3.

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strategy during this transit stage. Here, the progress of the Chinese NEV industry is reviewed to find development rules. The effectiveness of current incentive policies for individual models on penetration and technological evolution are evaluated. This will provide a basis for future technological roadmap programing. This study includes challenges and solutions involved in developing NEVs, interactions between policies and industrialization, and global technological progress and trend. Hence, the literature within the abovementioned scope is reviewed. Jin et al. [13] evaluated state-level U.S. electric vehicle incentives and presented a methodology to quantify electric vehicle policy benefits. They determined that not all types of incentives affect PEV sales equally; for example, consumer carpool lane access is more cost-effective for electric vehicle owners than subsidy. Meyer e al. [11] summarized the global NEV market progress of 18 countries. Minami [14] compared Japanese automotive policies with other Asian markets and determined with the progress of EV development in the region. Zhou et al. [15] analyzed the market progress of China and market trends of United States, together with strong government policies, and showed that national and regional PEV-related incentives in selected countries can play an important role in jump-starting the PEV market. Hao et al. [16] presented the rationale of China’s EV Subsidy 2.0 and estimated its impacts on EV market penetration. They found that technological improvement associated with battery cost reduction will play an essential role in starting up China’s NEV market. Ahman [17] and McLellen [18] analyzed the role played by the Japanese government in NEV development, the effect of government programs, and the importance of technical flexibility in government support schemes. Their results indicated that the success factors for a policy are more related to technologyspecific features than a particular policy style. Tie and Tan [19] reviewed state-of-the-art energy sources, storage devices, power converters, low-level control energy management strategies, and high supervisor control algorithms used in EVs, and presented a strength and weakness analysis method. In the future, battery safety technologies will be considered the most important for NEVs [20–22]. Sato et al. [23] and Nakada et al. [24] analyzed the trend of high speed and high power density for developing the traction motor. Yeh et al. [25], ACTransit [26], and FuelCellsWorks [27] investigated the key technological trend of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and presented the potential of their durability. Hutchinson et al. [28] have presented the snapshot of today’s hybrid market, with detailed descriptions of the various hybrid powertrain architectures. Andrenacci et al. [29] and Arias and Bae [30] found that an adequate charging infrastructure is a fundamental requirement and an appropriate approach for optimizing public and private investments, and presented a forecasting model for estimating EV charging demand based on big data technologies. The relevant studies have mainly focused on specific topic analysis, and only a few have comprehensively reviewed the NEV industry on the global or country level. In this study, a comprehensive development of NEVs industry is reviewed. The review produces (i) a triple-perspective (incentive policies effectiveness, market construction and concentration, powertrain technologies roadmap evolution) analysis based on detailed model classification and (ii) detailed data (obtained by analyzing 2424 PEV models in the Chinese market) from Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Industry (MIIT) that are assessed to summarize the development rules. The overall review is organized as follows. Section 2 will discuss the overall global NEVs development. In Sections 3–5 the influence of specific development guidelines and policies on the characteristics of different types of NEVs are reviewed and assessed. In Section 6, the construction of a charging infrastructure is summarized. Finally, Section 7 concludes the review.

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2. Overview of global electric vehicles industry 2.1. Review of incentives for PEVs In this section, the challenges faced in the starting stage of NEVs are analyzed and the global solutions are reviewed. The incentive policies of China, U.S., and Japan are compared. Purchase incentives are found to be among the most relevant and effective instruments promoting electric car sales [15], and have been adopted by U.S., Japan, and China. The U.S. government supports key technologies’ research and development of EVs through the federal funding project and promotes the penetration by fiscal incentives and demonstration projects. U.S. set the goal of becoming the first country to have one million EVs on road by 2015. For this purpose, the government pledged US$2.4 billion in federal grants to support the development of next-generation EVs and batteries. It also issued the tax credit scheme to promote PEV penetration. As defined by the 2009 American Clean Energy and Security (ACES) Act, a PEV is a vehicle that draws propulsion energy from a traction battery with at least 5 kW h of capacity and uses an off-board source of energy to recharge such battery. The tax credit for the new plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is worth US$ 2500 plus US$ 417 for each kilowatthour of battery capacity over 5 kW h, and the portion of the credit determined by battery capacity cannot exceed US$ 5000 [31]. Therefore, the total amount of credit allowed for a new PEV is US $ 7500. This method is followed by China in nation subsidy 1.0 [32]. In addition, to promote PEV penetration, the Department of Energy (DoE) published the ‘‘EV Everywhere Grand Challenge Blueprint,” which set the technical targets of the PEV program to fall into the following four areas: battery research and development, electric drive system research and development, vehicle light weighting, and advanced climate control technologies. The key goals to be met over the next five years to make PEVs competitive with conventional fossil fuel vehicles include cutting battery costs from their current US $500/kW h to US $125/kW h, eliminating almost 30% of vehicle weight through light weighting, and reducing the cost of electric drive systems from US $30/kW to US $8/ kW [33]. The subsidy or tax credit phasing out method is adopted by U.S. The new qualified PEV credit phases out for a PEV manufacturer over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles from that manufacturer have been sold for use in the U.S. For this purpose, cumulative sales are accounted after December 31, 2009. Qualifying PEVs are eligible for 50% of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25% of the credit if bought in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period [34]. The new proposal is that the incentives would begin to phase out starting in 2019 for all manufacturers, and the credit would be completely phased out by 2022 and fall to 75% of the current credit starting 2019. This gives reference to China’s subsidy 2.0. The main incentives for Japan are tonnage and acquisition tax reductions, automotive tax reductions, and incentives for purchasing new green vehicles. The Japanese government introduced the first electric vehicle incentive program in 1996. It was integrated in 1998 with the Clean Energy Vehicles Introduction Project, which provided subsidies and tax discounts for the purchase of electric and hybrid electric vehicles. The project provided a purchase subsidy of up to 50% of the incremental costs of a clean energy vehicle as compared with the price of a conventional engine vehicle until 2003 [35]. The ‘‘Green Vehicle Purchasing Promotion Measure” went into effect in 2009. The program establishes tax deductions and exemptions for EVs, according to a set of stipulated

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environmental performance criteria, and the requirements are applied equally to both foreign and domestically produced vehicles [36]. Subsidies for purchases of EVs in the case of owners scrapping a 13-year or older vehicle are 250,000 yen for a standard or small car. Subsidies for purchasing trucks and buses meeting the stipulated fuel efficiency and emission criteria vary between 400,000 and 1,800,000 yen [37]. NEV development has become a national strategy of China. In 2006, energy saving and NEV development were assigned as priority themes in the state long-term development plan (2006–2020) [38]. In 2012, the NEV industry was listed as a strategic newly emergent industry [9]. The Chinese industry’s goals for 2025 list the NEV industry as a key section [39]. The government is promoting the development of EV technology and industrialization by establishing state science and technology projects, and pushing the mass penetration of NEVs through demonstration projects and purchasing subsidy, similar to what U.S. has done. To complement these policies, development programs and state research and development projects have been initiated [32,40,41]. The Chinese government has successively launched state projects by funding 880 million [42], 1.1 billion [43], 2.8 billion [44], and 3.0 billion RMB [45] based on the 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th 5-year plans, respectively, to support research and development of EV technologies and to promote market penetration. The National Basic Research Program of China (973), National High-tech R&D Program (863 Program), and National Science and

Technology Infrastructure Program are established to support basic technological research, development, and testing and verification. From 2009, NEVs’ demonstration program has been initiated and the 1% market share penetration target for new sale vehicles has been put forward. Before 2012, the policy system was mainly supported by subsidy and was unsystematic. From 2013, the policy system has been made more comprehensive, as shown in Table 1. MOST [42,43] declared that the NEVs meeting the specified technological standards are eligible for exemption from purchasing tax. The State Council of Republic of China [46] proposed a clear development plan for charging infrastructure by different regions. The system includes charging pricing regulation, charging infrastructure setup incentive policy, encouragement of EV purchases for office use, and exemptions from sales and travel taxes. State subsidy is the core of the incentive policy system and plays an important role in directing Chinese EV industry development. In subsequent sections, the interactions of policies and NEV industrialization will be discussed. 2.2. Technological progress and trend of PEVs There are three obvious technological developing trends for EVs: more safety, light weight, and intelligence [62]. EVs need lightweight components more urgently than ICE vehicles owing to the limited energy density of traction batteries. The lightweight

Table 1 Primary state polices for NEVs in China. Year

Policies

Highlights

Type

2006 2007 2009

Long-term science and technology development plan [38] NEV companies and product listing regulations State EV demonstration project begins (2009–2012) [40]

2012

National strategy Industry management Demonstration and fiscal subsidy National strategy

NEVs are listed as a strategic emerging industry

National strategy

2012

Development plan of Energy-saving and NEVs industry (2012–2020) [7] Accelerating the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries [9,47] Notice on NEVs exemption from travel tax (version 1.0) [48]

NEVs are a priority theme First special management regulation for NEVs 10,000 NEVs introduced to 20 demonstration cities; subsidy 1.0 is issued 500 million NEVs expected to be on the road in 2020

Tax deduction

2013

Second-stage demonstration project begins (2013–2015) [49]

2012

Start of NEV industry Technological Innovation Project [50]

2013

Incorporation of Government agencies and public institutions for promoting NEV sales [51]

2014 2014 2014

Notice on exemption from vehicle purchase tax for NEVs [52] Instructions on further improvement for NEVs promotion [53] Notice on EV policy issues related to electricity prices [54]

2014

Notice on subsidies for NEV charging facilities [55]

2015

Notice on NEVs exemption from travel tax (version 2.0) [56]

2015

Prohibition of restrictions on NEV purchase and travel [57]

2015

Guiding opinions on accelerating the construction of charging infrastructure for EVs [46] Development of Guide of EV Charging Infrastructure (2015–2020) [58]

NEV meeting requirements of 21 technological regulations can exempt from travel tax 38 city clusters for NEV demonstration; subsidy 2.0 issued and phased out Funding of 4.2 billion RMB to promote NEVs and traction battery industrialization NEVs should constitute 30% share of new purchase official cars for demonstration cities’ governments from 2014 to 2016. The requirements for other local government are 10%, 20%, and 30% in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively NEV eligible for purchase tax exemption Overall development principles proposed at the national level Preferential electricity price policy to be provided for EV infrastructure charging Key NEV demonstration regions eligible to obtain subsidies for charging infrastructure construction of up to 120 million RMB NEVs meeting requirements of 38 technological regulations p and AER requirement are eligible for travel tax exemption Local governments cannot restrict purchase of or travel with NEVs Overall state guidance scheme on charging infrastructure construction By 2020, the construction of more than 12,000 charging station and 4.8 million distributed charging poles is planned to support the charging of 500 million EVs. Provision of operation subsidy for electric buses up to ¥ 80,000, with the oil price difference subsidy for ICE buses to be decreased yearly EV charging infrastructure to be integrated into urban infrastructure planning Specialized regulations and qualification for NEV companies

2012

2015

2015

2015 2015

Notice on the improvement of urban bus oil price subsidy policy to accelerate the popularization and application of NEVs [59] Notice on strengthening urban planning of EV charging infrastructure construction [60] Provisions for new-build battery electric passenger vehicle enterprises [61]

Demonstration and fiscal subsidy Market promotion Promotion

Tax deduction Demonstration and fiscal subsidy Energy pricing Infrastructure

Tax deduction Operation Infrastructure Infrastructure

Subsidy

Infrastructure Industry management

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materials and technologies applied in EVs will lead to additional cost savings. Lightweight technologies and materials are being increasingly applied in EVs worldwide. Most part of the Tesla models chassis has adopted aluminum alloy materials to help EVs reduce weight [63,64]. The use of lightweight carbon fiber composite in BMW i3 gave it a curb mass of only 1200 kg with a 22 kW h traction battery pack [65]. Intelligent technologies in the automotive industry are being given increasing attention, and EVs are the optimal platform for intelligent technology integration. In turn, intelligent technologies will push the rapid penetration of NEVs. Many self-driving car models have been introduced by wellknown companies including BMW [66], Mercedes-Benz [67], Volkswagen [68], Toyota [69], and Hyundai [70]. Tesla has developed the hardware and software for its autopilot cars [71], and Model X with the self-driving function has been put into demonstration [72]. Not only have automotive companies paid close attention to vehicle-intelligent technologies, but even internet companies, such as Google, have begun developing smart car technologies [73]. It is estimated that intelligent vehicles will eventually account for three-quarters of the total vehicle volume [74]. In addition, safety issues have become the core competitive technologies and attracted all NEV manufactures. The traction battery is a key technology of EVs [20]. The trend of traction battery development is high energy density, which leads to more severe safety issues [75]. It is expected to be the most important technical competition parameter in the future. Tesla invented a new type of safety traction battery management system [76]. The 10 typical traction battery cells from 10 global manufactures were tested by authoritative testing agencies of China; the results are shown as Fig. 1. Their energy densities reached up to 217 W h/kg (see Fig. 2), meeting the standard security requirements [77,78]. In the future, all protection levels of the traction battery pack for NEVs must be over IP 67, even IP 68 (After the battery is soaked in water for a long period, there is no fire and no explosion).

Specific energy (Wh/kg)

250 200 150 100 50 0

94Ah 20Ah 37Ah 54.8Ah 2.2Ah 2.4Ah 28Ah 42Ah 26Ah 36Ah

Fig. 2. The specific energy of traction battery meeting safety standards.

533

The crash safety of electric cars has even surpassed that of traditional ICE cars. The Tesla Model S is one of the few cars to have ever achieved a 5-star safety rating from both Euro NCAP and the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) [57,79]. Only two other cars have earned the same recognition since 2011 (when the NHTSA introduced its latest rating scheme). Owing to the great progress of NEV technologies, consumer acceptance has increased greatly, and hence, the industrialization process for NEVs has accelerated.

2.3. Global PEV industrialization progress 565,000 PEVs are sold worldwide in 2015 [80], and the annual sales of China accounting for 67% of the global market share. The global ownership of electric cars is close to 1.3 million [81], and mainly operates in Electric Vehicle Initiative (EVI) member countries. The EVI is a multi-government policy forum established in 2009 to promote policies and programs for electric vehicle technology, and to share lessons learned and best practices. It is dedicated to accelerating the deployment of PEVs worldwide, with the goal of a global deployment of 20 million electric cars by 2020. Currently, it includes 16 member governments [82]. Among these, seven countries have reached over 1% PEV market share in 2015, including Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, France, China, and the United Kingdom, as shown in Fig. 3 [83]. The two main electric car markets are China and the United States. By statistics, the uptake of electric cars has been growing since 2010, with the BEV uptake slightly ahead of PHEV uptake; 80% of the electric cars on road worldwide are located in the United States, China, Japan, the Netherlands, and Norway. China is currently leading the world in the use of electric commercial vehicles. The market shares of electric passenger cars account for most of those of PEVs for United States and Japan, so in this study, international comparison of plug-in electric cars (PECs) is only made among U.S., Japan and China. The statistics for the industrialization data (2011–2015) for China, United States, Japan, Western Europe, and Canada are present in [84]. According to these data, United States, Japan, and China are the top three countries in NEV industrialization; their industrialization progress comparison is shown in Fig. 4. The figure shows that, by the end of 2014, China’s PEV production and sales surpassed those of Japan to achieve annual sales of 8490, ranking second in the world after the United States. Cumulative light-duty PEV sales in Japan totaled about 145,000 units between July 2009 and September 2016, making Japan the world’s third largest light-duty plug-in vehicle country market after the United States and China [85]. The rate of growth of the Japanese plug-in segment slowed down from 2013, with annual sales falling behind the U.S. and China during 2014 and 2015. The decline in plug-in car sales reflects the Japanese government’

Fig. 3. EV sales and market share in a selection of countries and regions.

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J. Du, D. Ouyang / Applied Energy 188 (2017) 529–546 Table 2 Scope of NEV for China in different stages.

255,000 China

205,000

Models

United States

HEV

Sales

Japan

155,000 PHEV REEV BEV FCEV

105,000

2006–2010

2011–2015

  p p p p p

   p p p p

⁄p

55,000

5,000

Micro-hybrid Mild-hybrid Full-hybrid

2001–2005 p p p p p p p

denotes that the type is within the scope of NEVs, and is eligible for their state subsidy. X denotes that the type is beyond the scope of NEVs, and is not eligible for their national subsidy.

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Fig. 4. Top countries industrialization progress of NEVs.

and the major domestic car makers’ decision to adopt and promote hydrogen fuel cell vehicles instead of PEVs. By the end of 2015, sales of NEVs in China had reached 379,000 (excluding HEVs), with BECs, BEBs, PHECs, BSEVs, and PHEBs accounting for 39%, 24%, 17%, 13%, and 7%, respectively, of sales [86]. The total traction capacity installed on NEVs exceeded 15 GW h in 2015. The annual PEV sales in China accounted for 1.5% of new sale vehicles [62] and more than doubled the previous year’s sales and outstripping sales in all other countries. China surpassed the United States in terms of annual PEV output (2015 sales were 114,000 in the United States [87,88]) to become the world leader in PEV production and sales, and in terms of NEV fleet, reaching 497,000 (including HEVs would raise this number to 585,000 [89]). By contrast, PEV sales in the United States declined by 3% in 2015. Although Japan has lower PEV sales by volume, they both had significant increases in sales from the previous year. 3. Overall progress of Chinese NEV industrialization 3.1. Definition and classification of NEV Before industry progress analysis, the basic definition and classification of NEV for China must clarified. The types of NEVs in the Chinses market are shown as Fig. 5, and the scope of NEVs in different stages is shown as Table 2.

In China, all types of EVs fall into two categories: cars and commercial vehicles. Commercial vehicles comprise buses and other commercial vehicles. In Chinese market, other commercial vehicles also are called special vehicles, which mainly include trucks, sanitation trucks, logistics vehicles, postal vehicles, and construction vehicles. The scope of NEV in different stages is shown as Table 2. The HEVs are divided into 3 categories, and they are micro-hybrid, mild-HEV and full-hybrid defined in the Chinese standard of QC/T 837-2010. In the standard, the criteria for classification is peak power/total power ratio of the motor. The value is more than 10%, more than 10% and more than 30% for micro-hybrid, mild-hybrid and full hybrid respectively. 3.2. Progress analysis of Chinese NEV industrialization The overall Chinese NEV development process from 2003 to 2015 experiences three representative stages—an industrial exploration stage, a fostering stage, and a development stage—as shown in Fig. 6. The developing stage is determined by the market share of new sale vehicles. It is no more than 0.01% in the industrial exploration stage, 0.1% in the fostering stage, and 1% in the development stage. Altogether, nearly 500,000 PEVs have been sold and more than 2000 PEV models from more than 100 companies are on the Chinese market. In the first stage (2006–2009), research and development validation of EV products began. NEVs developed during this period included hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell electric vehicles. R&D of NEV is supported solely by

NEV

PEV

HEV

HEC: Hybrid electric car

HECV: Hybrid electric commercial vehicle

HEB: Hybrid electric bus

HESV: Hybrid electric special vehicle

PHEV(including REEV)

PHEC: Plug-in hybrid electric car

FCEV

BEV

PHECV: Plug-in hybrid electric commercial vehicle

BEC: Battery electric car

BECV: Battery electric commercial vehicle

FCEC: Fuel cell electric car

FCECV: Fuel cell electric commercial vehicle

PHEB: Plug-in hybrid electric bus

BESV: Battery electric special vehicle

FCEB: Fuel cell electric bus

PHESV: Plug-in hybrid electric special vehicle

BES: Battery electric bus

FCESV: Fuel cell electric special vehicle

Fig. 5. The classification of NEV.

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450000

1.80

350000

plug-in hybrid electric car

battery electric bus

battery electric car

battery electric special vehicle

hybrid electric bus

hybrid electric car

Market share in new sale vehicles

Annual sales

300000

Chinese NEVs demonstration 1.0

stage 2

0.80 0.60

PEVs:479,000 HEVs:24,500 0.37

PEVs:18,000 HEVs:17,800

PEVs:300 HEVs:2,500

100000

0.40

0.11

50000

0.05

0.03

0.02

0

2006-2009

20 10

20 11

1.20 1.00

Hybrid electricvehicles are assigned as energy saving technologies. stage 3

200000 150000

1.40

Chinese NEVs demonstration 2.0

250000

stage 1

1.60

1.55

Maret share in new sale vehicles (%)

400000

plug-in hybrid electric bus

0.20

0.10 0.00 20 12

20 13

20 14

20 15

Fig. 6. Progress of Chinese NEV industry.

national funding projects and serves to validate prototype models and investigate the technology roadmap. HEVs dominated the market during the period, with an 85% market share (as shown in Fig. 7) and the public sector constituting the main operational field. Among the NEV demonstration models, mild HEVs constituted the modal powertrain, with only 17 local brand models of hybrid electric sedan sold at a 5% fuel-saving rate. All of the 1600 hybrid electric buses sold were of the diesel-electric type; only 30 battery electric cars (BECs) were sold. From 2003 to 2008, only one PEC model, BYD F3DM, was on the market and 34 were sold. The NEV demonstration project in 2008 Beijing Olympic Games is the largest pilot program in modern Olympic history. 585 NEVs are put into operation, covering 371.4 million km and carrying 441.7 million passengers. The largest NEV demonstration program began in 2009 with the joint issue by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) of the ‘‘Notice Regarding Implementation of Experiment Work of Demonstration and Promotion of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles” [90]. The second stage of NEV development—the industrialization preparation period—occurred from 2010 to 2012. Although the NEV categories are essentially the same as in the first stage, micro and mild HEVs are excluded from the national subsidy scheme. The largest NEV demonstration program began in 2009 with a joint issue by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the Ministry of Science 100% 90% 80%

market share

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

2003-2008 2009

2010

2011

PEV

2012

2013

HEV

Fig. 7. Market share growth of PEVs.

2014

2015

and Technology (MOST) of the ‘‘Notice Regarding Implementation of Experiment Work of Demonstration and Promotion of Energysaving and New Energy Vehicles” [90]. Under this program, China officially issued a purchase subsidy for NEVs and designated the first batch of 13 national experiment cities, which were successively supplemented with two additional batches totaling 12 demonstration cities [41]. The subsidy system of this period is called ‘‘national subsidy policy 1.0” here. In 2010, six cities were chosen as private-purchasing demonstration cities where electric car sales can receive national subsidy [32]. In the ‘‘12th 5-year key project of electric vehicles,” the technology-transition strategy of electric driving was determined for the first time [8], and the funding of PEVs—including BEVs, PHEVs, range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs), and FCEVs—was made a priority. A strategy of prioritizing NEV development to small electric cars for private use and new energy buses in the public sector in anticipation of technology breakthroughs for medium and high-class EV models was implemented [91]. Influenced by this strategy, the penetration of NEVs into public-sector motor fleets has been significant, with 12,765 hybrid electric buses and 3392 battery electric buses (BEBs) being put on road. However, the introduction of NEVs into private use has been slow, with total sales of only 540 vehicles. By the end of 2012, the market shares of PEVs (55%) exceeded those of HEVs for the first time, as shown in Fig. 7. The third stage (2013–2015) is called the NEV industrialization development stage. In this period, the official definition of NEVs was modified to include only PEVs (i.e., PHEVs, REEVs, BEVs, and FCEVs). By contrast, HEVs were classified as energy-saving vehicles that do not qualify for national subsidy. In this stage, the national subsidy policy 2.0 was issued and the concept of subsidy phasingout was proposed for the first time, with the standard subsidies set to decrease by 5% and 10% in 2014 and 2015, respectively, from the 2013 levels for battery electric passenger cars (BECs), plug-in hybrid passenger cars (PHECs) (including range-extended electric cars), battery special electric vehicles (BSEVs), and FCEVs, but to remain constant for BEBs and plug-in hybrid electric buses (PHEBs) (including range-extended electric buses). From 2013, the industrialization of Chinese EVs entered a rapid growth period. A new round of demonstration programs was started in 39 demonstration city clusters, including 88 cities. In this period, 470,900 NEVs were put into operation in the demonstration cities; the distribution is shown in Fig. 8.

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60000

600% 2013-2015 NEVs in operation The goals in plan

500%

40000

400%

30000

300%

20000

200%

10000

100%

0

Goal Completion Rate

Compelete rate

Shanghai Shenzhen Beijing Jiangsu zhejiang Hebei Hunan Guangdong Guangzhou Tianjin Qingdao Wuhan Hefei Fujian Chengdu Jiangxi Zhengzhou Chongqing Linyi Wuhu Dalian Xian Yunnan Lanzhou Ningbo Xinxiang Haikou Weifang Guizhou Xiangyang Liaocheng Luzhou Taiyuan Shenyang Changchun Zibo Inner Mongolia Harbin Jincheng

NEVs in demonstration

50000

0%

Fig. 8. Spatial distribution of sales of PEVs during 2013–2015.

3.3. Challenges and solutions

Table 4 The comparison of solutions to barriers between different countries.

The main barriers for EV development include immature key technologies, incomplete industry chain, insufficient charging infrastructure, and imperfect policies and regulations for all countries. Before 2013, the developing force for the Chinese market was insufficient. The main challenges are shown in Table 3. The key technologies associated with the traction battery are the primary problem. In the early development stage of the NEV industry, the automated production levels were low, the cell consistency was poor, the cost was high, and the cycle performance was bad. In addition, the output capacity of the traction battery was insufficient. Before 2012, the NEV market share was dominated by electric commercial vehicles in the public service area; however, the penetration of electric cars was very low owing to their poor performance and few models available. From 2009 to 2012, only JAC iEV had small-scale sales [43]. The charging infrastructure construction progress was very slow, hindering NEVs’ mass penetration. To solve the abovementioned problems, the Chinese government invested more than 10 billion RMB to promote the technological research and development, especially for the traction battery. The import of advanced technologies was encouraged by listing the joint venture EV in the NEV directory only if any of the traction battery, traction motor, or vehicle control technology had independent intellectual property rights. The industry innovation engineering project was initiated in 2012 to push the mass

The first stage

The second stage

Core technologies Local protectionism Insufficient infrastructure Insufficient traction battery output Insufficient invest Consumer acceptance is low Incomplete standards Battery secondary use and recycle

d d d d d d d s

d d d

⁄ddenotes it is significant, not exist.

National plan R&D projects Accelerating market penetration Subsidy for purchasing Exempt from purchasing tax Exempt from travel tax Demonstration projects Government Procurement Low price for electricity consumption Exemption from travel and purchasing restrictions Subsidy for charging infrastructure Mandatory requirement for construction of charging infrastructures Fuel consumption limitation regulation for ICE vehicles Carbon credit High-occupancy vehicle lane access Special license Insurance premiums

U. S p p p p

Japan

p p p p p p p p p p p p

 p p p

p

p

p

p p

 p

 

 

Planning   

  p 

p p  p p p p p   p p

penetration and reduce the cost for NEVs [92], similar to EV everywhere challenges program throughout United States. In addition, the charging infrastructure promoting policies were issued [46,58,60]. On the whole, China drew on the successful experience of U.S. and Japan for NEVs, as shown in Table 4. 4. Progress of plug-in electric cars

Table 3 The main challenges of NEVs industry for China in different stages. Challenges

China

The third stage

d s

The makeup of the Chinese NEV market constitution is shown in Fig. 9. The plug-in electric cars account for 65% market share. In 2015, the annual sales of plug-in electric cars are 210,000, accounting for 1% market share of new sale passenger cars for the first time.

d s

4.1. Progress of battery electric cars

d d

denotes that it is not significant, and s denotes it does

4.1.1. Policies assessment The main incentive policies for battery electric cars comprise fiscal subsidies, total tax exemptions, and the removal of purchase

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100% 90% 80%

market share

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

2003-2008

2009

2010

2011

plug in electric cars

2012

2013

2014

2015

plug in commercial electric vehicles

Fig. 9. Plug-in electric car market share.

and travel restrictions. Of these, the fiscal subsidy is considered to be the core. The criteria of the national subsidy are a very important guide to industry in terms of sustainable development. In subsidy 1.0, the criterion centered on installed traction battery capacity, i.e., increased battery power (above a threshold value) equaled a higher subsidy. Battery electric cars are provided a subsidy based on installed battery capacity in consideration of the fact that the cost of the traction battery accounts for most of the additional cost of an EV, with the standard rate of ¥ 3000/kW h increased to ¥ 60,000 between 2009 and 2012. The low battery capacity threshold value for qualifying for the subsidy is 15 kW h. In subsidy policy 2.0, the criterion for subsidy changed to all-electric range (AER), which is deemed to be a significant advance in effectiveness as it takes energy efficiency into consideration [1,16,93]. From 2013, battery electric car models in the Chinese market received national subsidy according to their AER, with the specific standards shown in Fig. 10. In 2014 and 2015,

70

Subsidy/thousand Yuan

60 50 40 30 20

state subsidy standard in 2013 state subsidy standard in 2014 state subsidy standard in 2015 subsidy achieving under 2010 standard subsidy achieving under 2013 standard

10 0 0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

360

400

AER/km Fig. 10. BEC model national subsidy comparison for standards 1.0 and 2.0.

the subsidy is phased out by 5% and 10%, respectively, from the 2013 level. The lower threshold value of AER is 80 km. Statistics obtained by comparing 42 BEC models from 33 local companies show that the BEC criterion in subsidy policy 2.0 is more effective in terms of attaining policy goals than the criterion in subsidy policy 1.0. Subsidy policy 2.0 has favored small-size battery electric cars over large models, mainly because the former require smaller installed traction battery packs to attain the same AER, as shown in Fig. 10.

4.1.2. Industrialization progress The battery electric car market’s constitution is very complicated in terms of both vehicle models and promotional modes. There are currently 38 battery electric car companies providing 42 models in the Chinese market; among these, only 24 models are sold on a large scale. As BEC model size, power performance, energy efficiency, and emissions vary widely, better classification of this vehicle type can provide more accurate analysis. Based on surveys and data analysis on all BEC models in the Chinese market, as well as discussion with NEVs experts, we propose a feasible classification method. The wheelbase and the seats as main indicators, top speed, AER and curb mass as an auxiliary parameter to determine the classification. Finally, the classification is reviewed and determined by experts finally. By this method, the BECs can be classified into five categories, namely, the A000, A00, A0, A, and B classes, as shown in Table 5. By statistics of testing data from MIIT, the industry progress of BECs are presented in Fig. 11. In 2015, annual sales of BECs are 153,000, with cumulative sales reaching 213,000. Among the 80 BEC models, the annual sales of 13 models exceeded 2000, with four models exceeding 10,000 and two models exceeding 20,000. As AER is the national subsidy policy 2.0 subsidy criterion, micro- and small-size battery electric cars are at an economic advantage owing to their smaller installed batteries. Microbattery electric cars, including A000s and A00s, account for 63% of the BEC market share. Based the market share constitution

Table 5 Classification of definitions of battery electric cars in the Chinese market. Type

Seats

Top speed (km/h)

Curb mass (kg)

Wheelbase (m)

AER (km)

Typical models

A000 A00 A0 A B

64 4 5 5 5

80–100 80–100 100–120 150 P160

600–800 800–1250 850–1300 1100–2300 1600–2700

62 2–2.3 2.3–2.5 2.5–2.7 2.7–2.9

80–150 150–160 150–170 170–250 160–250

Geely ZD D2 [94] Cherry eQ [95] JAC iEV5 [96], BAIC EV200 [97] ChangAn EADO [98] BAIC ES210 [99]

J. Du, D. Ouyang / Applied Energy 188 (2017) 529–546

140000 120000

90 80 70

100000

60

80000

50 40

60000

30 40000 20 20000

10

0

0 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Fig. 11. Development of battery electric car market.

60000

100 95.0

96.5 97.5

91.1 86.5

50000

80

81.0 A000 A00 A0 A B Market share of Top company

74.3 67.0

Annual sales

40000 54.1

30000

90

70 60 50 40

20000

35.7

30 20

10000

10 0

0 Geely

Zotye

BAIC

JAC

BYD

Cherry

Lifan Jiangling Qingnian Changan

Fig. 12. Degree of industrial concentration for BEC based on market share for top companies in 2015.

100

30000 94.0 89.6

92.2

90

85.4

25000

80

79.2 72.8

20000 63.7

50.8

15000

37.5

Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Market share of top companies

70 60 50 40

10000 30 22.7

20

5000 10 0

0

Fig. 13. Degree of model concentration for BEC based on market share in 2015.

Market share/%

2010

Sales

Sales

and developing trend of BECs, it can be concluded that the national subsidy has influenced the market significantly. The BEC industry concentration is analyzed, and it takes market share of top sales models and companies as indicator, as shown in Figs. 12 and 13. The degree of BEC industry concentration is very high in that the market share of the top five companies exceeds 80%, while the share of the top 10 companies accounts for 97.5%. Among the top 10 sale models, there are 6 A000 and A00-class BECs, with their combined share accounting for over 70% of total BECs. In addition to the national subsidy, the purchase limitation policy plays an important role in promoting BEC marketing. In some cities that have issued vehicle-purchasing limitation policies, including Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou, BECs are exempt from this restriction. The effects of such exemptions have been most significant in Beijing, whose cumulative BEC

100

A000 A00 A0 A B A000 market share of BEC A00 market share of BEC A0 market share of BEC A market share of BEC B market share of BEC

Market share/%

160000

Market share (%)

538

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J. Du, D. Ouyang / Applied Energy 188 (2017) 529–546

90000

4.2. Progress of plug-in hybrid electric cars

70000

80000

4.2.2. Industrialization progress Market constitution of PHECs are simpler than that of BECs. Only seven PHEC models are available currently, including four local models manufactured respectively by BYD, SAIC, and GAC. From 2013, with the introduction of the BYD Qin and Tang [101], and SAIC ROEWE e550 [102], the market penetration of PHECs begin to accelerate. From the view of policy influence, the subsidy for PHECs led to significant sales reductions from 2013 to 2015, as mentioned above; nevertheless, PHECs have achieved rapid market growth, as shown in Fig. 15. Sales reached 63,000 in 2015, representing a growth rate of 300% compared with the previous year. Cumulative sales from 2009 to 2015 are 83,282. The BYD Tang development-trend analysis (shown in Fig. 15) also shows that plug-in hybrid sports utility vehicles (SUVs) are popular and have a significant mass-market potential in future. This trend inversely mirrors that of the conventional ICE passenger car market. In 2015, sales of SUVs are 6.22 million, representing an increase of 52.39% from the previous year and accounting for 30% of the market share of passenger cars; at the same time, sales of sedans decreased by 5.33% compared with 2014 [103]. The plug-in hybrid electric SUV is expected to be the most promising new model in the Chinese market. 60

state subsidy standard in 2013 state subsidy standard in 2014 state subsidy standard in 2015 subsidy achieving under 2010 standard subsidy achieving under 2013 standard

Subsidy/thousand Yuan

50

40

30

20

10

0 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

AER/km Fig. 14. Comparison of PHEC models receiving national subsidy under two standards.

sales

60000

4.2.1. Policies assessment The policies on PHEVs are similar to those applied to BECs. In national subsidy 1.0, plug-in hybrid electric cars (PHECs) are provided subsidies based on installed battery capacity above a threshold battery capacity of 10 kW h at an initial rate of ¥ 3000/kW h, rising to ¥ 50,000. From 2013, PHEVs have been covered under subsidy policy 2.0 through a single subsidy standard instead of a stepped standard. The criterion is ¥ 350,000 per vehicle for models with AERs of more than 50 km. Statistics on national subsidy-receiving PHEC models in the Chinese market show that changing the criterion for subsidy to AER under subsidy 2.0 has been beneficial for PHEC models with installed traction battery capacities of more than 10 kW h and AER being more than 50 km is required. In the previous subsidy scheme, they are not eligible for subsidy, however in subsidy 2.0they can receive ¥ 35,000. However, the overall national subsidy for PHECs decreased by up to 30% when the subsidy changed from versions 1.0 to 2.0, as shown in Fig. 14.

50000

BYD F3DM BYD Qin PHEV BYD Tang PHEV SAIC ROEWE e550 GAC GA5 PHEV accumutive sales Growth rate

600 83282

500 400 300

Tang PHEV on market

40000 ROEWE e550,GA5 PHEV on market

30000

200 20884

20000

100

Qin PHEV on market

10000 0

Growth rate (%)

penetration ranked first from 2013 to 2015 at 27,665, accounting for 16% of the total in the demonstration cities [100].

48

2009

465

1078

2010

2011

2279

3426

0 2012

2013

2014

2015

Fig. 15. Development of plug-in hybrid electric car market.

The PHEC market penetration in specific cities is investigated. The sales of PHECs are significantly influenced by the purchasing-restriction policy, for instance, 62% of BYD Qin PHEV sales occurred in Shanghai as shown in Fig. 16. Shanghai has issued the most stringent restrictions on ICE passenger cars purchasing, and it has adopted a license plate auction system. In 2015 the auction success rate is 4.3% and the average price of a license plate reaching ¥ 80,000. However, NEVs are exempted from purchasing restriction, so Shanghai becomes the leading city for PHEC penetration in China. By statistics, 41,140 PHECs operate in Shanghai from 2013 to 2015. However, in Beijing, the other ICE vehiclepurchasing restriction city, plug-in hybrid electric cars are exempted from the local NEVs directory, as a result, total sales of PHECs in Beijing is almost 0. It can be concluded that the influence of the national subsidy is outweighed by vehicle-purchasing restrictions in the demonstration cities. In addition, the It can be a negative impact of protectionism on penetration can be seen clearly. 5. Progress of plug-in commercial electric vehicles 5.1. Progress of electric buses Electric buses dominate the electric commercial market, accounting for a 73% market share of plug-in electric commercial vehicles. The annual sales of electric buses reached 120,000 in 2015, accounting for a 21% [104]market share of new sale buses, and cumulative sales reached 150,000. Among electric buses, BEBs are a technological and industry focus; by comparison, PHEB technologies are more mature and have fewer issues of safety, charging convenience, and additional cost. Like battery commercial cars, electric bus batteries are complicated, and research on these vehicles must therefore be based on detailed classification. 5.1.1. Progress of battery electric buses 5.1.1.1. Policies assessment. New energy electric buses in the Chinese market can be classified into three categories based on body length: small-size (models with lengths of 6 and 7 m), mediumsize (models with lengths of 8 and 9 m), and large-size (models 10, 11, 12, and 18 m in length). From 2009 to 2012, only BEBs with body lengths of over 10 m qualified for the national subsidy of ¥ 500,000 per vehicle. However, under national subsidy 2.0, electric buses with lengths of between 6 and 10 m qualified for fiscal subsidies of ¥ 300,000 (6 and 7 m models) and ¥ 400,000 (8 and 9 m models). The development of the BEB market is shown through the statistics on sales by model from 2009 to 2015 in Fig. 17. It is evident that 12 m models always dominated the market, with an

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0-500 0.5-2K 2-7K 7-15K 15K+ Fig. 16. Spatial distribution of BYD Qin sales in 2015.

<6 m 7m 10 m 12 m <6 m bus market share 7 m bus market share 10 m bus market share 12 m bus market share

90000 80000 70000

80 70 60

State subsidy for 6-8m models up to 300,000RMB

60000

Sales

90

6m 8m 11 m 18 m 6 m bus market share 8 m bus market share 11 m bus market share 18 m bus market share

50 50000 40 40000 30

30000

20

20000

10

10000 0

Market share (%)

100000

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

0

Fig. 17. Development of battery electric bus industrialization.

exception occurring in 2015 owing to the introduction of a subsidy for electric bus models below 10 m in length. These types of lightduty BEBs (12 m) generally have installed traction battery packs with capacities of 40–50 kW h and qualify for national subsidies of up to ¥ 400,000; if the local subsidy is taken into account, a considerable profit can be achieved, and therefore manufacturers have been willing to produce and sell such models. Correspondingly, the market share of 12 m BEBs has increased, as shown in Fig. 13. The cumulative sales of BEBs in China have exceeded 100,000, placing the country first in the world in this category. In 2015, annual sales are 96,000. As light-weight BEB technologies have advanced significantly, the energy consumption rate of a typical 12 m BEB model

has been reduced to 0.65 kW h/km and the curb weight has been reduced by 4.7% compared with that of ICE buses. From Fig. 17, it is seen that NEV subsidy 2.0 has led to a significant increase in the sales of 6 m, 7 m, and 8 m BEBs. Before 2014, the market share of BEBs is no greater than 1%; in 2014 it increased to 30%, and in 2015 it reached 75%. Market surveys have revealed that the cost of small-size electric buses is approximately ¥ 250,000 to ¥ 400,000. As these qualify for the national subsidy of ¥ 300,000 and local subsidies of up to ¥ 300,000, it can be concluded that the industrialization of these vehicles relies heavily on national subsidy policies. The growth rate of BEB sales is almost 600% in both 2014 and 2015 owing to the

541

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100

6m 7m 8m 10 m 11 m 12 m 18 m Market share of top companies

18000 16000 14000

90 80 70.8

Annual sales

12000

61.6

65.0

73.3 75.9

70

67.9

60

58.0 53.6

10000

47.9 42.0

8000

50 40

34.5

Market share/%

20000

30

6000 25.2

4000

20

15.2

10

2000 0

0

Fig. 18. Degree of industrial concentration for BEB based on market share for top companies in 2015.

all-out promotion of light-duty BEBs–another indication that the BEB market is driven by subsidy policy. 5.1.1.2. Industrialization progress. We analyzed the BEB industry concentration based on the market share of top companies by individual model, with the results shown in Fig. 18. The BEB industry concentration is not as high as that of the BEC in that the market share of the top five companies is no more than 5% and the total market share of companies whose annual sales are over 2000 is only 75.9%. 5.1.2. Progress of plug-in hybrid electric buses From 2009 to 2012, only hybrid electric buses are covered by the subsidy policy, with a standard uniform subsidy of ¥ 400,000 per vehicle. Under subsidy 2.0, the national subsidy for HEVs is concealed due to being out of scope of NEV, and only PHEVs qualifying for it at ¥ 250,000 per vehicle. Subsidy 2.0 has seen a 37.5% reduction in hybrid electric bus sales since 2013, as shown in Fig. 19. Because PHEBs can be converted from hybrid electric buses by increasing the installed capacity of the traction battery, the sales of PHEBs rose from 300 to 13,000 and then to 24,000 in 2013, 2014, and 2015, respectively, from only 905 in 2012. Although the sales of plug-in electric buses 100% 90%

Market share

80% 70% 60% 50%

increased by 85% in 2015, the market share fell behind that of BEBs owing to the sharp increase in sales of 6–8 m models. Statistics on current models in the Chinese market reveal that the installed battery capacity of PHEBs is approximately 25– 35 kW h and the AER is approximately 20–30 km. However, as a bus normally travels more than 200 km in a day, a PHEB with an AER of no more than 50 m has a techno-economic performance no better than that of a hybrid electric bus. PHEB industry concentration is analyzed the based on the market share of top companies by individual model, with the results shown in Fig. 20. The market share of the top two companies is 44.1%, and only three companies’ annual sales are over 2000. Owing to the lower national subsidy, bus companies place less emphasis on PHEBs than they do on light-duty BECs. 5.2. Progress of battery special electric vehicles 5.2.1. Policy assessment From 2009 to 2012, BSEVs received subsidies of ¥ 3000/kW h, up to ¥ 600,000. The maximum installed traction battery capacity of any special electric vehicle model is 153 kW h. Electric sanitation vehicles represented the main models sold during that period, with 1043 battery electric sanitation vehicles sold, accounting for a 39% market share of special EVs. From 2013, the subsidy for battery special EVs is changed to ¥ 2000 per 1000 kW h based on the battery capacity, with the total amount of per-vehicle subsidy not exceeding ¥150,000. The sales of logistics EVs dominated the market with more than a 50% market share in 2015. Many local governments have issued subsidy policies to promote the sales of battery special EVs, with, for instance, Beijing providing a local subsidy matching the national subsidy.

40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

2010

2011

hybrid electric bus

2012

2013

plug-in hybrid electric bus

2014

2015

battery electric bus

Fig. 19. Growth of plug-in hybrid electric bus market in 2015.

5.2.2. Progress of industrialization Owing to low technical requirements and not being subject to the production qualification restriction, BSEVs have experienced rapid market growth. Products can differ significantly in terms of quality, with many automobile reassembling factories investing in the production of BSEVs in order to profit from the sizeable subsidy.

J. Du, D. Ouyang / Applied Energy 188 (2017) 529–546

7000 6000 5000

Annual sales

100

9 10 11 12 Marlet share of top companies 68.2

75.0

79.0

82.2

84.3

90 86.3 88.0 80

61.0

4000

60

52.9

2000

50

44.1

3000

70

40

Market share/%

542

30

27.3

20 1000

10

0

0

Fig. 20. Degree of industrial concentration for PHEB based on market share for top companies in 2015.

Battery special vehicles can be classified by application as logistics vehicles, sanitation trucks, postal vehicles, and delivery trucks. 537 models from 68 companies are on sale in the Chinese market, with cumulative sales of 57,000. Surprisingly, sales of special electric vehicles increased 16-fold in 2015, as shown in Fig. 21. As low cost is the core aim of BSEV design, nickel–cobalt–manganese (NCM) batteries are increasingly used. In 2015, NCM batteries accounted for 59% of special electric vehicle batteries. There are 537 BSEV models from 68 companies in the Chinese market. Our industry concentration analysis revealed that the 16

60000

14

50000

Sales

10 8

30000

6

20000

4 10000

Growth rate

12 40000

2

0

0 2009

2010

2011 2012 Sales

2013 2014 Growth rate

2015

Fig. 21. Growth of battery special electric vehicle market.

100

7000

90

6000

Annual sales

70

4000

53.1 47.0

3000

39.9 32.4

2000 1000 0

23.8 13.9

58.0

70.8 62.5 66.8 60

50 40 30

Market share/%

80 5000

20 10 0

Fig. 22. Degree of industrial concentration for BSEV based on market share for top companies in 2015.

market share of the top three companies is 32.3%, as shown in Fig. 22, while that of the top 10 companies is only 70.8%. Based on these statistics, it is seen that, except for Dongfeng and BAIC, BSEV companies are generally small-scale with lower production capacities, and correspondingly the market share is greatly dispersed. 6. Charging infrastructure 6.1. Supporting policies The charging infrastructure is one of the most important factors influencing NEV industrialization. Charging-infrastructure construction has lagged behind the rapid development of the EV industry, with the many unsafe charging devices that have been developed, including fly lines from high buildings and selfmodified charging devices, representing high security risks by charging infrastructure market survey [105]. In addition, the interfaces and protocols of existing charging poles are not always compatible, locations tend not to be reasonable, and billing systems are not unified, all of which means that the present charging infrastructure operates with a low utilization rate. In order to solve these problems and accelerate the construction of charging infrastructure while improving the utilization rate and safety, the Chinese government has issued a series of policies and standards [106–110]. These standards cover the general technological requirements for EV conductive charging system, the general technological requirements for conductive charging connection set, AC coupler, DC coupler, and communication protocols. The charging modes are divided into 4 categories, and they are mode 1, mode 2, mode 3 and mode 4, as shown in Table 6. 6.2. Progress of infrastructure construction Driven by these policies, the amount of charging infrastructure has increased significantly. By the end of 2015, 49,468 public charging poles had been built. Among them, there are 34,565 AC charging poles, 10,978 DC charging poles, and 3925 integrated charging devices [111]. The spatial distribution of the charging infrastructural ownership is shown in Fig. 23, with Guangdong Province ranking first in terms of charging infrastructure stock. In some advance demonstration cities, the construction of charging infrastructure has been progress greatly. In Beijing, 21,000 charging poles had been constructed by the end of 2015, including 12,000 private

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J. Du, D. Ouyang / Applied Energy 188 (2017) 529–546 Table 6 The definition of the charging modes. Normal charging

Power, kW Charging current, A Voltage, V

Fast charging

Mode 1

Mode 2

Mode 3

Mode 4

3.3 8 220

3.3, 7 16, 32 220

3.3, 7, 43 16, 32, 63 380

– 125, 250 <1500

0-1K 1-3K 3-5K 5-10K 10 K+ Fig. 23. Spatial distribution of charging infrastructure in China.

charging poles. The ratio of EVs to poles has reached 0.77 for private use in Beijing and 0.73 in Shanghai [62], but for most of the demonstration cities, this ratio is no more than 0.1. The overall number of the charging infrastructure is not enough for supporting the operation of present NEVs. The roadmaps for charging infrastructure differ by location. In Beijing, fast charging is assumed to be the main method for private EV use in the future, and more than 1000 fast charging stations are planned. By contrast, normal charging is the primary option for Shanghai. 7. Conclusions and discussion 7.1. Conclusions China has become the largest NEV ownership and production country, but the market is still driven by supporting policies instead of the market. In the next 5 years, it will be very important for China to improve the quality of all NEVs. From the point of view of subsidy influence on industrialization, NEVs penetration is almost completely driven by subsidy policy. For electric passenger cars, other assisting policies such as exemptions from purchasing restrictions are beginning to take effect, and the influence of fiscal subsidy is fading, especially for plug-in hybrid electric cars.

The range-extended type plug-in hybrid electric car is more competitive for Chinese local government use, and the sales are influenced much more by vehicle-purchasing restriction policies than by national subsidy. Plug-in hybrid electric cars are expected to become the first mass-produced models even as the national subsidy phases out. Plug-in hybrid electric SUVs will be a key product of the Chinese automotive industry, and in future it will be the optimal solution for China local SUV company to solve the challenges of next stage fuel consumption limitation regulations. The constitution of battery electric buses is not health due to the excessive subsidy for light duty electric buses. The subsidy policy for electric buses should be optimized. The current charging infrastructure is not sufficient to support Chinese NEVs industrial development, and charging infrastructure promotion is a major challenge for the industry. The progress of NEVs industrialization will be blocked if the infrastructure construction cannot keep up with the NEVs market growth rate. 7.2. Discussion In the next 5–10 years, China must resolve the abovementioned problems to be the global leader in NEV technologies and market. To push breakthrough in the key technologies for NEVs, the national research and development programs should be continued in the future. The topics of these programs should cover

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high-energy-density safety traction battery, high-power-density traction motor control unit, self-driving technologies, highpower-density and long-durability fuel cell stack, improved charge sustainable fuel economy of long AER plug-in hybrid electric cars, and BECs with special chassis and lightweight material. For market penetration issues, the demonstration program and technological innovation project should be continued. To solve the problems of the market being exclusively subsidy-driven, a more scientific and directive subsidy policy system is required. The subsidy for BEBs should be reduced greatly, and multi-evaluating indices, such as fuel consumption rate of per load mass and AER for different models, should be added. The policy should be tilted to the electric cars to improve their quality and promote mass penetration in the future. Specific regulations need to be urgently drafted for BEVs in order to increase their market growth and improve electric driving technologies. Taking only batteryinstalled capacity as a subsidy criterion is not conducive to technological advance, and additional binding indices such as electricity consumption rate at per-load mass should be added. The credit policy for clean vehicles adopted by the United States should be trialed in China. In the future, the policy system must be improved and the safety standards should be completed. Local protectionism has a negative impact on Chinese NEV marketing and represents a significant drag on the self-development of the powertrain roadmap. The post-EV market in China must be taken into account to realize sustainable development in the NEV industry, including traction battery re-sale, re-fabrication, recycling, and NEV recycling. Sales statistics from the first half of 2016 reveal that NEV sales have reached 170,000 [112], with an average growth rate of 96% compared with last year. Based on this, NEV annual sales are expected to reach more than 500,000, and thus, the problem of post-EV is very serious. Acknowledgments This study is sponsored by National Key Technologies R&D Program (2016YFB0101801) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71403142). The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their reviews and comments. References [1] Ou X, Zhang X, Chang S. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China’s future road transport: life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions. Energy Policy 2010;38:3943–56. [2] CAAM. Analysis of Chinese Automotive Industry Situation in 2015. [accessed June 2016]. [3] Economic and Technical Research Institute of China Petroleum Group. Report of Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development. Beijing: Economic and Technical Research Institute of China Petroleum Group; 2016. p. 1–20. [4] Ministry of Environmental Protection of Republic of China. Annual Report of Chinese Vehicles Pollution Control. Beijing: Ministry of Environmental Protection of Republic of China; 2015. , [accessed June 2016]. [5] BJEPB. Report of source of PM2.5 in Bejing is published, the tailpipe emission of automotive is the main source. [accessed June 2016]. [6] Ou X, Zhang X, Zhang X, Zhang Q. Life cycle GHG of NG-based fuel and electric vehicle in China. Energies 2013;6:2644–62. [7] State Council of Republic of China. Inform on the issuance of energy-saving and new energy vehicles industry development plan (2012-2020). [accessed June 2016]. [8] MOST. Notice on issuance of electric vehicles technology developing plan (2010-2015), ; 2012 [accessed June 2016]. [9] State Council of Republic of China. Notice on the issuance of state strategic emerging industry development plan (2010-2015). [accessed June 2016].

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