Solar emergy evaluation for Chinese economy

Solar emergy evaluation for Chinese economy

ARTICLE IN PRESS Energy Policy 38 (2010) 875–886 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Energy Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/e...

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ARTICLE IN PRESS Energy Policy 38 (2010) 875–886

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Energy Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Solar emergy evaluation for Chinese economy Z.F. Yang a, M.M. Jiang a,n, B. Chen a, J.B. Zhou b, G.Q. Chen b,n n, S.C. Li c a b c

State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Science and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China State Key Laboratory for Turbulence and Complex Systems, Department of Mechanics and Aerospace, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

a r t i c l e in fo

abstract

Article history: Received 25 March 2009 Accepted 19 October 2009 Available online 14 November 2009

A unified evaluation integrating various forms of energy sources and natural resources, products and services, and imports and exports is carried out systematically at the national scale for the booming Chinese economy 1978–2005, based on the ecological measure of solar emergy. The development of the economy is shown heavily dependent on the consumption of nonrenewable natural resources. Of the total resources use, the indigenous resources contribute the most, along with the increasing imports of nonrenewable resources. The development of the Chinese economy is characterized with the recovery stage during 1978–1981, transformation stage during 1981–1991, steady growth stage during 1991– 2000, and accelerated increase stage after 2000, with specific distinctive systems indications. Crown Copyright & 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Emergy Resources National economic account

1. Introduction Since the ending of the chaotic decade associated with the socalled Great Cultural Revolution and the implementation of the Open and Reform policy in 1978, China has experienced the world’s fastest economic growth. However, the soaring development of Chinese economy has been closely associated with an excessive consumption of energy and natural resources and severe environmental deterioration (Ji and Chen, 2006; Chen and Chen, 2007a, b, c, d; Zhou et al., 2007; Feng et al., 2009; Shealy and Dorian, 2009). How to balance the needs of both human and natural systems (Campbell et al., 2005) necessitates expressing the socio-economic and environmental effects in common terms. The economic prosperity is not only dependent on the contribution from the goods and services valued in money but also relied on the free environmental sources as well as the wealth of the stored mineral resources, of which the marketoriented evaluation with monetary units are difficult to assess fairly and adequately. There even exists an inverse relationship between the contribution a resource makes to the economy and its price (Odum, 1996). As the core index for national economy accounting based on conventional economic analysis, GDP excludes the environmental cost of economy development and thus has been increasingly suspected in recent years (Gerlagh et al., 2002; Cairns, 2004) The quantity and quality scarcities of the diverse resources require a more efficient, effective

n

Corresponding author. Tel.: + 86 13466715171; fax: + 86 10 59893227. Also corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (M.M. Jiang), [email protected] (G.Q. Chen). nn

and interdependent utilization based on overall and unified accounting. Odum, 1983, 1988, 1996 developed the energy theory of value by incorporating aspects of ecological hierarchy and energy quality to evaluate the contribution of natural environment to human economic system with embodied energy synthesis. Based on energetics (Lotka, 1922, 1945) and systems ecology (Odum, 1983; Odum and Brown, 1975), embodied energy analysis, instead of the money-oriented approach, integrates the values of free environment investment, goods, services and information in a common unit. Systems indices and ratios have been devised in embodied solar energy (emergy) analysis to account for both the ecological and economic contributions (Ulgiati et al., 1994; Brown and Buranakarn, 2003). Emergy-based evaluations have been extensively made for macroeconomics of states and nations and the economic–environmental interface of microeconomics (Ulgiati et al., 1995; Bastianoni and Marchettini, 1997; Higgins, 2003; Brown and Ulgiati, 2004; Dong et al., 2004; Herendeen, 2004; Campbell et al., 2005; Bastianoni et al., 2006, 2007; Chen and Chen, 2006, 2008; Chen et al., 2006, 2009; Jiang et al., 2007; Zhang et al., 2007; Liu et al., 2009; Ulgiati and Brown, 2009). Researches on national scale have been done for many countries including Switzerland, France, Sweden, Japanese, Norway, Canada, Brazil, Turkey, Italy, U.S., China. etc. (Odum, 1996; Pillet and Odum, 1984, 1987; Pasquier, 1999; Li et al., 2001; Jiang et al., 2008; Lan, 1992, 1995; Lan and Yu, 1993; Lan and Odum, 1994; Lan et al., 2002). Emergy analyses for regions, provinces and counties in China have been fully introduced (Chen et al., 2006; Jiang et al., 2007, 2008, 2009). Nevertheless, the overall panorama of the Chinese economy remains to be revealed against historical background. As an extension for our work on Chinese economy 2004 (Jiang et al., 2008), this study presents an integrated analysis of sustainability for Chinese economy 1978–2005. Emergy analysis

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is used to diagram the Chinese economy as a social–economic– ecological complex system, to estimate environmental and economic inputs and harvested yield, and to assess the sustainability of Chinese economy as a whole. Detailed systematic indicators are examined from a historical perspective for the contemporary Chinese society after China’s Reform and Open policy in the late 1980s. Temporal variation of indices such as environmental load ratio (ELR), emergy self-support ratio (ESR) and emergy yield ratio (EYR) are explored to illustrate the characteristics of the Chinese economy.

ered directly or indirectly driven by solar radiation, in emergy analysis each form of energy carrier or embodier in the concerned system is translated into its embodied solar energy equivalent, or solar emergy, by its solar transformities as a conversion factor that reflects the ecological value of the embodier (Odum, 1996; Brown and Buranakarn, 2000). The larger the transformity, the more the solar energy required for producing the resource, product or service of interest, and the higher their position in the energy hierarchy of the universe (Odum, 1988, 1996). With the same output, the system with a lower transformity is more efficient in ecological sense. Odum and his colleagues have calculated transformities for various products and services, and there are detailed references for calculating emergy values of most energy and resources (Odum, 1996; Brown and Ulgiati, 1997, 2004; Brown et al., 2004). In the present research, the baseline empower is chosen as 9.44  1024 sej/yr

2. Method As the formation and presence of all kinds of available energy carriers and other natural resources are conventionally consid-

Fuels, minerals

Goods

F’

G’ P2I I

Fuels, minerals

F1

N1 Sun, Rain, Wind, Earth cycle,

Soil losses, N0 Fishes

Services

N2

Markets $ Tourism

E P1E

Rural renewable

R : Free renewable sources; N0 : Dispersed rural sources; N1 : Concentrated resources; G’ : Imported goods without emergy of service; G : Imported goods with emergy of service; I : Money that flows out; P2I : Emergy of services in imported goods and fuels; F’ : Concentrated resources; F1 : Imported fuels and minerals with emergy of service; N2 : Resource outputs which pass through the system without great transformation; B : Exported goods other than N2; E : Dollars received fromexports; P1E : Emergy of goods and service exports; X : Gross national product. Fig. 1. Aggregated flows of the Chinese economy.

B

Source Interaction Producer

Storage Capital Flow Material and Energy Flows Environment Impact Virtual Environmental Input

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877

Table 1 Emergy evaluation of resource basis for China (1978–2005). Note

Item

1978

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

5.10E + 22 7.70E + 23 7.40E + 23 2.50E + 23 1.10E + 24 6.20E + 23 1.20E + 24

5.10E+ 22 8.30E+ 23 8.00E + 23 2.50E+ 23 1.10E+ 24 6.20E+ 23 1.20E+ 24

5.10E+ 22 8.40E+ 23 8.10E+ 23 2.50E+ 23 1.10E+ 24 6.20E+ 23 1.20E+ 24

5.10E +22 8.80E +23 8.50E +23 2.50E +23 1.10E +24 6.20E +23 1.20E +24

5.10E+ 22 8.30E+ 23 8.00E + 23 2.50E+ 23 1.10E+ 24 6.20E+ 23 1.20E+ 24

5.10E +22 8.30E +23 8.00E + 23 2.50E +23 1.10E +24 6.20E +23 1.20E +24

5.10E+ 22 8.50E+ 23 8.20E+ 23 2.50E+ 23 1.10E+ 24 6.20E+ 23 1.20E+ 24

Nonrenewable sources from within system (sej/yr) 8 Natural gas production 3.10E + 22 9 Oil production 3.90E + 23 10 Coal production 8.60E + 23 11 Limestone and fertilizers 9.00E +22 12 Metals 1.80E + 23 13 Soil losses 2.70E + 24 14 Topsoil losses 4.00E +22

3.30E+ 22 4.00E + 23 8.70E+ 23 1.20E+ 23 1.70E+ 23 3.60E+ 24 5.30E+ 22

2.90E+ 22 4.70E+ 23 1.20E+ 24 1.50E+ 23 2.10E+ 23 5.60E+ 24 8.40E+ 22

3.60E +22 5.20E +23 1.50E +24 2.10E +23 2.70E +23 7.20E +24 1.10E +23

4.20E+ 22 5.60E+ 23 1.90E+ 24 3.40E+ 23 4.00E + 23 7.90E+ 24 1.20E+ 23

6.30E +22 6.10E +23 1.40E +24 4.30E +23 3.40E +23 8.20E +24 1.20E +23

1.20E+ 23 6.70E+ 23 3.10E+ 24 7.00E + 23 6.30E+ 23 8.00E + 24 1.20E+ 23

Imported sources (sej/yr) 15 Fuels 16 Metals and minerals 17 Finished materials 18 Food & ag. products 19 Other industrial products 20 Imported services

4.30E + 21 7.70E + 22 6.40E + 21 2.20E + 22 3.70E + 22 4.80E + 21

8.30E+ 21 1.00E + 23 9.20E+ 21 2.20E+ 22 3.20E+ 22 4.20E+ 21

9.80E+ 21 2.50E+ 23 1.20E+ 22 1.00E +22 9.10E+ 22 6.20E+ 21

4.00E + 22 1.30E +23 1.30E +22 7.00E + 22 7.40E +22 7.50E +21

1.70E+ 23 4.20E+ 23 3.60E+ 22 1.30E+ 23 1.50E+ 23 3.40E+ 22

4.50E +23 6.60E +23 8.10E +22 1.00E + 23 2.40E +23 4.80E +22

8.40E+ 23 1.90E+ 24 2.50E+ 23 3.40E+ 23 5.50E+ 23 8.90E+ 22

Exports (sej/yr) 21 Fuels 22 Metals and minerals 23 Food & ag. products 24 Finished materials 25 Other industrial products 26 Service in exports

1.10E + 23 7.60E + 22 1.60E + 22 1.50E + 22 1.30E + 22 5.50E + 22

8.30E+ 22 5.40E+ 22 1.80E+ 22 1.50E+ 22 1.30E+ 22 4.60E+ 22

1.50E+ 23 6.80E+ 22 5.00E +22 3.50E+ 22 1.80E+ 22 1.10E+ 23

1.50E +23 4.80E +22 4.90E +22 4.50E +22 1.20E +23 1.90E +23

1.50E+ 23 2.20E+ 23 6.70E+ 22 3.20E+ 22 4.00E + 23 3.70E+ 23

1.90E +23 2.00E + 23 9.40E +22 2.10E +22 6.60E +23 3.70E +23

2.70E+ 23 4.60E+ 23 1.10E+ 23 2.40E+ 22 2.00E + 24 6.40E+ 23

9.10E + 22 1.00E +24 4.90E + 23 6.60E + 22 7.60E + 22 9.80E + 21

1.10E+ 23 1.10E+ 24 6.90E+ 23 6.40E+ 22 7.20E+ 22 1.00E + 22

1.70E+ 23 1.40E+ 24 1.20E+ 24 1.00E +23 6.80E+ 22 1.10E+ 22

2.30E +23 1.80E +24 1.90E +24 1.80E +23 6.50E +22 1.10E +22

3.70E+ 23 2.40E+ 24 3.00E + 24 3.50E+ 23 6.50E+ 22 1.40E+ 22

4.10E +23 2.50E +24 4.00E + 24 5.70E +23 6.00E + 22 1.10E +22

7.00E + 23 2.70E+ 24 7.70E+ 24 6.70E+ 23 5.00E + 22 1.30E+ 22

Nonrenewable sources consumed within systems (sej/yr) 33 Natural gas consumption 3.20E + 22 34 Oil consumption 3.40E + 23 35 Coal consumption 7.90E + 23

3.20E+ 22 3.30E+ 23 8.50E+ 23

2.90E+ 22 3.40E+ 23 1.10E+ 24

3.60E +22 4.30E +23 1.50E +24

4.10E+ 22 6.00E + 23 1.90E+ 24

5.60E +22 8.40E +23 1.70E +24

1.10E+ 23

Renewable resources (sej/yr) 1 Sunlight 2 Rain, chemical 3 Rain, geopotential 4 Wind, kinetic 5 Waves 6 Tide 7 Earth cycle

Additional information of the Chinese economy Indigenous renewable energy (sej/yr) 27 Hydroelectricity 28 Agriculture Production 29 Livestock Production 30 Fisheries Production 31 Fuel wood Production 32 Forest Extraction

3.00E + 24

Table 2 Summary of flows in the Chinese economy (1978–2005).

R N N0 N1 N2 F’ G’ I I3 P2I E E3 B P1E P1E3 X P2 P1

Item

Unit

1978

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Renewable sources Nonrenewable resources from within China Dispersed rural source Concentrated use Exported without use Imported fuels and minerals Imported goods Dollars paid for imports Dollars paid for imported services Emergy value of imported services Dollars received for exports Dollars paid for exported services Exported products transformed within China Emergy value of goods and service exports Emergy value of exported services Gross national product World emergy/$ ratio, used in imports Country emergy/$ ratio

sej/yr sej/yr sej/yr sej/yr sej/yr sej/yr sej/yr $ $ sej/yr $ $ sej/yr sej/yr sej/yr $ sej/$ sej/$

1.51E +24 2.40E+ 24 8.50E+ 23 1.55E +24 1.88E +23 8.15E +22 6.46E +22 1.09E+ 10 4.84E +21 9.75E +09 1.99E +09 8.08E+ 22 1.83E +23 3.73E +22 2.17E +11 3.17E +12 1.87E +13 1.51E +24

1.62E+ 24 2.72E+ 24 1.13E+ 24 1.59E+ 24 1.38E+ 23 1.08E+ 23 6.30E+ 22 2.00E + 10 4.23E+ 21 1.81E+ 10 2.00E + 09 6.55E+ 22 2.70E+ 23 2.98E+ 22 3.03E+ 11 2.45E+ 12 1.49E+ 13 1.62E+ 24

1.66E+ 24 3.85E+ 24 1.78E+ 24 2.07E+ 24 2.21E+ 23 2.62E+ 23 1.13E+ 23 4.23E+ 10 6.22E+ 21 2.74E+ 10 3.06E+ 09 1.46E+ 23 5.70E+ 23 6.37E+ 22 2.82E+ 11 2.46E+ 12 2.09E+ 13 1.66E+ 24

1.73E + 24 4.82E + 24 2.27E + 24 2.55E + 24 2.00E +23 1.69E + 23 1.57E + 23 5.34E + 10 7.46E + 21 6.21E + 10 5.86E + 09 2.58E + 23 1.19E + 24 1.12E + 23 3.58E + 11 1.71E + 12 1.92E + 13 1.73E + 24

1.62E + 24 5.74E + 24 2.49E + 24 3.25E + 24 3.68E + 23 5.88E + 23 3.09E +23 1.32E + 11 3.43E + 22 1.49E + 11 1.91E + 10 5.46E + 23 1.72E + 24 2.21E + 23 7.19E + 11 1.36E + 12 1.15E + 13 1.62E + 24

1.62E +24 5.43E +24 2.59E +24 2.84E +24 3.82E +23 1.11E +24 4.23E +23 2.25E +11 4.82E +22 2.49E +11 3.04E+ 10 7.25E +23 1.82E +24 2.22E +23 1.18E +12 1.34E +12 7.29E +12 1.62E +24

1.66E+ 24 7.70E+ 24 2.51E+ 24 5.20E+ 24 7.27E+ 23 2.78E+ 24 1.13E+ 24 6.60E+ 11 8.92E+ 22 7.62E+ 11 7.44E+ 10 2.01E+ 24 4.67E+ 24 4.56E+ 23 2.28E+ 12 1.06E+ 12 6.13E+ 12 1.66E+ 24

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(Odum, 1996), to facilitate comparison with relevant studies on national scales, especially our recent work on Chinese economy 2004 (Ulgiati et al., 1994; Odum, 1996; Odum and Odum, 2000; Jiang et al., 2008). With the systems diagrams developed by Odum, the networks of society and environment can be clarified and the complicated components in the systems aggregated and simplified. Based on Odum (1996), the detailed emergy-based systems diagrams, algorithm and indicators for the Chinese economy are given in Jiang et al. (2008), and here only the aggregated systems diagram with the major components and flows associated with the economy is presented in Fig. 1. As shown, nonrenewable resources from within the nation are categorized into dispersed rural resources N0 with storages used

faster than regrowing, such as forestry production and soil loss, and concentrated resources N1 as reserves of fuels and minerals that are formed and renewed with long periods of geologic time. The flow N2 is the export of raw materials such as fuels, minerals and chemicals, while the exported goods other than N2 are shown as B. Both the flows of N2 and B are accompanied with reversed money flows E, thus the total export goods and service can also be expressed as the product of dollar E and the emergy/dollar ratio (P1E). The major items of imports and exports are divided into three categories as fuels and minerals (F0 ), goods (G0 ), and services (P2I), and the goods included are agriculture products, plastics, rubber, chemicals, finished materials and machines. For the present work on the national economy in the mainland China during 1978–2005, data sources include various official

Table 3 Summary indices for evaluation (1978–2005). Item Name of Index

Expression

1 2

R N

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

1.51E +24 2.40E+ 24

F+ G+ P2I N0 +N1 +R + F+ G+ P2I N2 +B +P1E3 (N0 +N1 + R)/U

1980 1.62E+ 24 2.72E+ 24

1985 1.66E+ 24 3.85E+ 24

1990

1995

2000

2005

1.73E + 24 4.82E + 24

1.62E +24 5.74E +24

1.62E+ 24 5.43E+ 24

1.66E+ 24 7.70E+ 24

1.51E +23 1.76E+ 23 3.80E+ 23 3.34E + 23 4.06E+ 24 4.51E+ 24 5.89E+ 24 6.88E + 24 3.06E+ 23 2.33E+ 23 4.30E+ 23 5.71E + 23 96.28% 96.11% 93.54% 95.15%

9.31E +23 8.29E +24 1.13E +24 88.76%

1.58E+ 24 8.63E+ 24 1.33E+ 24 81.65%

4.00E + 24 1.34E+ 25 3.09E+ 24 70.05%

(F + G+P2I)  (N2 + B+ P1E3) 1.56E +23 5.73E+ 22 4.97E+ 22 2.37E + 23 2.03E+ 23 -2.54E+ 23 -9.12E+ 23 2.03 1.33 1.13 1.71 1.22 0.84 0.77 (N2 + B+ P1E3)/(F +G+ P2I) R/U 37.12% 35.93% 28.11% 25.11% 19.57% 18.79% 12.43% 3.72% 3.89% 6.46% 4.85% 11.24% 18.35% 29.95% (F + G+P2I)/U 0.85% 1.09% 1.77% 1.33% 2.17% 3.49% 5.25% P2I/U (R + N0)/U 58.06% 60.91% 58.32% 58.14% 49.60% 48.74% 31.18% 72.23% 64.17% 71.48% 71.99% 101.60% 105.17% 220.75% (F + G+P2I+ N1)/(R+ N0) U/(Area ha) 4.23E +15 4.70E+ 15 6.13E+ 15 7.17E + 15 8.64E +15 8.99E+ 15 1.39E+ 16 U/Population (R/U) (Population)

4.22E +15 3.57E +08

4.57E+ 15 3.55E+ 08

5.63E+ 15 2.94E+ 08

6.02E +15 2.87E + 08

6.84E +15 2.37E +08

6.81E+ 15 2.38E+ 08

1.02E+ 16 1.63E+ 08

P1 = U/GNP

1.87E +13

1.49E+ 13

2.09E+ 13

1.92E + 13

1.15E +13

7.29E+ 12

5.87E+ 12

(el)/U Fuel/Population (F0 + G0 +P2I+ N)/R (F0 + G0 +P2I)/(R+ N) (R + N) /U

2.92% 1.21E +15 1.71 0.05 0.96

3.86% 1.23E+ 15 1.81 0.05 0.96

4.03% 1.44E+ 15 2.62 0.09 0.94

5.25% 1.69E + 15 3.03 0.06 0.95

7.00% 2.11E +15 4.20 0.15 0.89

9.02% 2.04E+ 15 4.48 0.26 0.82

10.77% 3.26E+ 15 7.41 0.49 0.70

1.5x1025 Renewable sources Concentrated use Dispersed rural source Total imported emergy GNP

2.4x1012

1.0x1025

1.6x1012

5.0x1024

8.0x1011

0.0 0.0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 Year Fig. 2. Total emergy use and its composition of China.

GNP (yuan)

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Emergy (sej)

3 4 5 6

Renewable emergy flow (sej/yr) Flow from indigenous nonrenewable reserves (sej/yr) Flow of imported emergy (sej/yr) Total emergy used, U (sej/yr) Total exported emergy (sej/yr) Fraction emergy use derived from home sources exports minus Imports (sej/yr) Ratio of exports to imports Fraction used, locally renewable Fraction of use purchased Fraction imported service Fraction of use that is free Ratio of concentrated to rural Use per unit area, empower density (sej/ ha) Emergy use per person (sej/capita) Renewable carrying capacity at present living standard Ratio of use to GNP, emergy/dollar ratio (sej/$) Ratio of electricity to use Fuel use per person (sej/capita) Environmental loading ratio (ELR) Emergy investment ratio (EIR) Emergy self-support ratio (ESR)

1978

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3. Account The trends and composition of the total emergy use of the Chinese economy are revealed in Fig. 2. The total emergy use (U) for the Chinese economy increased from 4.06  1024 sej in 1978 to 1.34  1025 sej, of which more than 70% was from indigenous sources. Divided by the GNP, the solar emergy intensity declined from 1.87  1013 to 5.87  1012 sej/dollar during 1978–2005. Renewable resources (R), nonrenewable resources (N) and imports are the three major sources for emergy use. As shown in Fig. 2, of all the four kinds of resources propelling the Chinese economy, the concentrated use of emergy (N1), including contributes from fossil fuels, metals and minerals, takes the largest share with emergy increased from 1.55  1024 to 5.20  1024 sej; the dispersed rural source (N0) as the second largest contribution are mainly from the soil loss with emergy from 8.50  1023 to 2.51  1024 sej; and the renewable resources kept nearly steady with a declining share while the imports rose by 25.5 times from 1.51  1023 sej in 1978 to 4.00  1024 sej in 2005.

1.2x1025 1.0x1025 Emergy (sej)

statistics as sectoral databases and public issued yearbooks, such as China Statistical Yearbook, China Economic Yearbook, China Foreign Trade Yearbook, China Agriculture Yearbook, etc. (COJTR, 2006; CSY, 2006; CASY, 2006; CEY, 2006; CESY, 2006). The annual major emergy flows for the Chinese economy during 1978–2005 are summarized in Table 1 as four categories of renewable sources, nonrenewable resources, imported resources and exported resources. The details in Table 1 are combined to result in the summarized flows list in Table 2 of summary flows. A series of indices, which aid in describing the levels of development, identifying main resource that support quality of life, and estimating the importance of environment resources in the socio-economic activities, are listed in Table 3. The trends of these indices provide useful information about the dynamics of the Chinese economic systems within the carrying capacity of the environment.

879

Hydroelectricity Agriculture Production Livestock Production Fisheries Production

8.0x1024 6.0x1024 4.0x1024 2.0x1024 0.0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 Year Hydroelectricity Agriculture Production Livestock Production Fisheries Production Fuelwood Production Forest Extraction

27.52%

3.72% 4.26% 0.55% 5.08%

58.86%

1978 0.42% 5.65%

Hydroelectricity Agriculture Production Fuelwood Production Fisheries Production Livestock Production Forest Extraction

23.09%

5.91% 0.11%

3.1. Indigenous resources As primary impetus for the economy, environmental free renewable resources involving sunlight, rain, wind, earth cycle, and waves and tide, remain largely steady in magnitude, corresponding to a decreased share in total emergy use from 37.1% in 1978 to 12.4% in 2005. It is worth noticing that to avoid double-accounting, of all the renewable inputs, only the largest item, rain, is taken into account though all the emergy inputs are estimated as distinctively listed in Table 1. The indigenous resources of hydroelectricity and products from agriculture, husbandry, fishery and forestry, are derived from the free natural resources and the purchased products, thus locating at higher hierarchy levels in the economic system. As secondary resources, though with magnitude went up from 1.78  1024 sej in 1978 to 1.18  1025 sej in 2005, these secondary resources are not included in the total emergy use. As shown in Fig. 3, among all the indigenous resources, agriculture gave its way to livestock as leading contributor in the period. The fraction of the former declined from 58.8% to 23.1% while the latter increased from 27.6% to 64.8%, which reveals the radical changes in the composition of the Chinese diet. The third is hydroelectricity with contribution rising from 9.07  1022 to 7.0  1022 sej; and the production from fishery and fuel wood contributed the least, from 6.62  1022 to 6.69  1023 sej and 8.58  1022 to 6.33  1022 sej, respectively.

64.81% 2005 Fig. 3. Trend and fraction of indigenous resources.

Local nonrenewable resources provide the Chinese economy with most of the driving forces. This part increased from 2.40  1024 sej in 1978 to 7.70  1024 sej in 2005 as shown in Table 1, which is respectively about 16 times and 2 times of the imports in 1978 and 2005, indicating that till now, the development of the Chinese economy has always been dependent on the domestic resource supply. The variation and composition of the local nonrenewable resources from 1978 to 2005 are illustrated in Fig. 4 for soil loss, fuels, metals, and limestone and fertilizers. As a kind of dispersed rural resource, the emergy use rising from 8.50  1023 to 2.51  1024 sej associated with the soil losses contributed almost half of the local nonrenewable resources, of which nearly more than 95% came from the soil erosion caused by water and wind and only 5% from the topsoil losses as a natural environmental process.

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8x1024

2005

Soil loss Metals, limestone and fertilizers Fuels

7x1024

2002 1999

5x1024

1996

4x1024

1993

year

Emergy (sej)

6x1024

3x1024

1990

2x1024

1987

1x1024

1984

0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 year

Oil production Coal production Limestone and fertilizers Metals

1981 1978 1x1024

0

2x1024 3x1024 4x1024 Emergy (sej)

5x1024

6x1024

Fig. 4. Trend of nonrenewable resources and its composition.

Total exported emergy Total imported emergy

4.5x1024

4.0x1024

4.0x1024

3.5x1024

3.5x1024

3.0x1024

3.0x1024

Emergy (sej)

Emergy (sej)

4.5x1024

2.5x1024 2.0x1024 1.5x1024

Imported services Other industrial products Food & ag.products Finished materials Materials and minerals Fuels

2.5x1024 2.0x1024 1.5x1024 1.0x1024

1.0x1024

5.0x1023

5.0x1023

0.0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 Year

0.0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 year

Fig. 7. Trend of selected imported resources of China. Fig. 5. Trend of total imports and exports of China.

3.0x1024 1.0x1024

Emergy (sej)

8.0x1023

Exported fuels Imported fuels

6.0x1023 4.0x1023

Emergy (sej)

2.5x1024 2.0x1024

Fuels Metals and minerals Food & agricultural products Other industrial products Exported services

1.5x1024 1.0x1024 5.0x1023

2.0x1023 0.0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 year Fig. 6. Trend of fuels in imports and exports of China.

Use of fuels as natural gas, oil and coal rose from 1.28  1024 sej in 1978 to 3.87  1024 sej in 2005. Production of coal as the dominant primary energy increased from 8.65  1023 to 3.08  1024 sej, taking a rising share from 67.3% to 79.5%, while the consumption of coal also increased from 7.92  1023 to 3.02  1024 sej. The coal-based energy structure implies high

0.0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 year Fig. 8. Trend of selected exported resources of China.

CO2 emissions and has made China one of the largest CO2 emission countries in the world. The coal-related SO2 emission also reached 25.5 Mton in 2005, ranking first in the world (SEPA, 2006). Limited by the reserves of fossil fuels, the oil production in China had only a mild increase from 3.88  1023 sej in 1978 to 6.75  1023 sej in 2005. In the same period, metals production, with a share rising from 7.37% to 8.14% of the total nonrenewable

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3.2. Imports and exports As shown in Fig. 5, the total imports increased from 1.51  1023 to 4.00  1024 sej while the exports rose from 3.06  1023 to 3.09  1024 sej during 1978–2005, and before 1999 the trends of imports and exports are very close to each other, indicating a trade balance of real wealth in the foreign trade. However, after 1999, there is a deviation between the exports and the imports, due to the accelerated increase of the exports. Of the total imported resources, fuels grew by 196 times with emergy rising from 4.30  1023 to 8.43  1023 sej, as shown in Fig. 6, indicating that the development of the Chinese modern industry is increasingly dependent on the fuels from abroad. Compared with imported fuels, the fuel exports during the same period are very low with a little development from 1.12  1023 to 2.70  1023 sej for exhaustible reserves of fossil fuels. As shown in Fig. 7, the imported resources mainly include fuels, metals and minerals, finished materials, food and agricultural products and services, of which metals and minerals take the largest share with emergy rising from 7.72  1022 sej in 1978 to 1.94  1024 sej in 2005. The emergy of fossil fuels grew up quickly and accounted for more than 20% of the total imports after 1996. Finished materials, mainly including cement, paper products and timber, rose from 2.22  1022 to 2.46  1023 sej while foods and agriculture products increased from 1.63  1022 to 3.39  1023 sej from 1978 to 2005. The exports as illustrated in Fig. 8, in contrast to the imports, include mainly industrial products, services, fuels, metals and minerals, with industrial products ranked the first with emergy from 1.25  1022 sej in 1978 to 1.36  1024 sej in 2005, and exported services increased from 3.73  1022 to 4.36  1023 sej during the same period. The summed share of both the industrial products and services kept more than 50% of the total domestic exports after the year 1994. The results reveal that the economy has turned from dependence on exporting raw and semi-finished materials and resource products to a world factory with an overwhelming majority of exports as processed products, i.e., finished goods made of imported raw materials, auxiliary parts or primarily processed items. As illustrated in Fig. 9, the iron ore as one of the most important imported metals grew up by 55 times from 4.30  1021 sej in 1978 to 2.37  1023 sej in 2005. And the other

two major kinds, steel products and aluminum products, respectively increased from 5.60  1021 to 3.61  1022 sej and from 4.80  1020 to 1.02  1022 sej during the same period. In recent years, there is a growing tendency for the metal imports, especially for the steel products, made the country turned from a net exporter to a net importer in 2005. The shortage of oil in China stimulates an upward dependence upon the imported oil, which turned China to be a net importer of oil after the year 1996. As shown in Fig. 10, the imported oil in China rose by 498 times from 1.89  1020 sej in 1978 to 9.41  1022 sej in 2005, ranking first in imported fuels, followed by the oil-derived fuels and coal. In 2005, China’s degree of dependence on international oil market reached 43%, 4% higher than in 2004, according to information released by the Market Operation Department of the Ministry of Commerce. If the trend continued, the degree will reach 70% till 2010. The grim situation may push the Chinese government to take drastic actions to reduce the dependent on foreign oil by a series of solutions including encouraging energy conservation, establishing its own oil reserve bases, and promoting related technologies and infrastructures. China also imported some coal for electric power generation. From 1978 to 2005, the imported coal reached 1.86  1022 sej, with an average annual growth rate of 11.6%. The imports of other oil-derived fuels, such as diesel oil and gasoline, increased from 1.10  1020 sej in 1978 to 2.30  1022 sej in 2005.

1.4x1023 1.2x1023 Emergy (sej)

resources, increased by 3.54 times from 1.77  1023 to 6.27  1023 sej. Besides that, the production of limestone and fertilizers developed quickly from 8.97  1022 to 7.01  1023 sej.

8.0x1022 6.0x1022

2.0x1022 0.0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 year Fig. 10. Trend of imported fuels of China.

Iron ore Steel products Aluminium products

8.0x1022 Emergy (sej)

Emergy (sej)

1.0x1023

1.0x1023

2.0x1023 1.5x1023 1.0x1023

Oil derived fuels Coal Oil

4.0x1022

3.0x1023 2.5x1023

881

Natural gas Coal Electricity Oil

6.0x1022 4.0x1022 2.0x1022

5.0x1022 0.0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 Year Fig. 9. Trend of imported metals of China.

0.0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 year Fig. 11. Trend of exported energy of China.

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4.0x1023 3.5x1023

5.0x1023 Imported food and agricultural products Exported food and agricultural products

4.0x1023

2.5x1023 2.0x1023 1.5x1023 1.0x1023

Emergy (sej)

Emergy (sej)

3.0x1023

Imported services Exported services

3.0x1023 2.0x1023 1.0x1023

5.0x1022 0.0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 year

0.0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 year

Fig. 12. Trend of total imports and exports of food and agricultural products of China.

Fig. 13. Trend of imported and exported services of China.

The exported energy mainly comprised of coal and oil with a little electricity and natural gas. Coal exports increased quickly from 2.21  1021 sej in 1978 to 6.39  1022 sej in 2001, showing the trend of accelerated growth. After 1995, coal accounts for the largest amount of fuel emergy exported from China. To 2003, the exports of coal reached 6.67  1022 sej, ranking second in the world. But after that, with a series of limiting policies, the coal exports declined year by year as illustrated in Fig. 11. Coal and oil are the largest exports and together they account for more than 85% of the emergy in the China’s fuel exports. Oil exports declined steadily, especially after 1993, when the exports of oil amounted 1.85  1022 sej with a share of 53.2% in the total exported energy, resulted in a decreased share down to 20.5% with emergy 1.58  1022 sej in 2005. Fig. 12 shows the trends of the total imports and exports of food and agricultural products from 1978 to 2005. The basic principle for solving the problem of grain supply and demand in China is to depend on the domestic resources and basically achieve self-sufficiency in grain. The imports and exports of foods and agricultural products kept a balance for a long time before the year 2001, as shown in Fig. 12, with the imports increased from 2.17  1022 to 1.01  1023 sej and the exports from 1.63  1022 to 8.07  1022 sej. After 2001, because of the growing up of imported vegetable oil, the imports of foods and agricultural products developed quickly at an annual average increase rate of 18.6%. The net import percentage in grain supply has been on the decrease after 1978. It was nearly 3.3% from 1978 to 1984, 1.2% from 1985 to 1990 and 0.85% from 1991 to 2005. The self-sufficiency rate was kept above 95% and the net import rate 5% of the total consumption quantity. At the same time, the imports of the vegetable oil have a great development from 3.92  1021 to 2.86  1023 sej, especially after the year 2001, the imports increased at an average annual increase rate of 30%. As shown in Fig. 13, China imported a total of 8.92  1022 sej services in 2005, 18.4 times of that in 1978. During the same period, the exported service increased from 3.73  1022 to 4.36  1023 sej, much higher than that of imported services.

also integrates the nonrenewable resources and the renewable resources. During 1980–2005, the population in China steadily increased from 0.96 billion to 1.3 billion, the fuel use per person rose from 1.21  1015 to 3.26  1015 sej, and the emergy use per person increased from 4.22  1015 to 1.02  1016 sej, as shown in Fig. 14. 4.2. Emergy/dollar ratio The emergy/dollar ratio, or emdollar, the total emergy use divided by GNP, can be used to value the purchasing power of money. Generally speaking, developing countries have a higher emergy/dollar ratio, because their economy involves more direct use of environmental resources without money exchange. Thus, a dollar in these countries can buy more real wealth than in developed countries. As shown in Fig. 15, the Chinese emdollar ratio decreased by 93.5% from 1.11  1013 sej/yuan in 1978 to 7.27  1011 sej/yuan in 2005, suggesting a declining purchasing power of the real wealth per dollar in China. Put it another way, one yuan in 1978 can buy 15.3 times that in 2005. For comparison, Fig. 15 also illustrated the China emdollar ratio in US dollar units. Compared with the international emdollar ratio, which decreased a little from 3.17  1012 to 1.11  1012 sej/dollar during the period from 1978 to 2005, the Chinese emdollar ratio from 1.87  1013 to 5.87  1012 sej/dollar is much higher, indicating China will loss in most international trades for the inherent inequity. In sense of energy and resources, the more the trade and exchange, the more the imbalance between China and the developed countries. The dollar-earning export of raw materials in large scale tends to drain country rather than to benefit, because the exchange of environmental commodities generally transfers much more emergy to the purchasers than what the paid money really can buy, when China has a relatively high emdollar ratio compared with those of most purchasers. For long-term interest, the raw materials with high environment emergy should be reserved to make final products with more additional values. 4.3. Foreign trade and emergy exchange ratio

4. Results 4.1. Emergy used per person To indicate the real living standard, the indicator of emergy use per person is more effective than fuel use per person, since it accounts for not only the different qualities of input joules but

The emergy exchange ratio (EER) is defined as the emergy in imports over that in exports. The exports/imports balance of emergy flows, expressed as P1E+ B+ N2)/(P2I+ G+ F), shows the relationships of dependence and exploitation between trading partners. The difference between exports and imports indicates whether the region or country is a supporting area for the other

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1.2x1016

1.5x109

Population Emergy use per person Fuel use per person

Population

1.0x109 6.0x1015

Emergy (sej)

9.0x1015

5.0x108 3.0x1015

0.0

0.0

1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 year Fig. 14. Emergy and fuel use per person of China.

2.5x1013 China emergy /yuan ratio P1, China emergy /dollar ratio P2, World emergy /dollar ratio

1.2x1013

2.0x1013

9.0x1012

1.5x1013

6.0x1012

1.0x1013

3.0x1012

5.0x1012

Emdollar ratio (sej/$)

Emdollar ratio (sej/yuan)

1.5x1013

0.0 0.0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 year Fig. 15. Trend of emdollar ratio for the world and China.

regions or the larger system (Campbell et al., 2005). For China, as shown in Fig. 16, the ratios are more than 1.0 in most years before 1997, indicating that the Chinese economy exports more emergy than imports as a supporting area for the other countries in this period. However, there was an apparent downward trend with the ratio less than 1.0 during the year 1997–2005 due to the rapid growth of imported resources. Fig. 16 provides further comparison in terms of the net exports as exports minus imports and exports/imports ratio, indicating that the imports increased much quicker than exports after 1997 with the accelerated development of the Chinese economy. The decreasing trends of the emdollar ratio and the ratio of exports to imports suggested China has realized the necessity of importing environmental commodities from the foreign trades.

4.4. Environmental loading ratio With considerable headway in economic development, the resource base in China has been overloaded and depleted for the overwhelming motive to promote GDP. In most regions of China, the economic development always has priority over the so-called

compatible development of economic, environment and resources. The environmental loading ratio (ELR), as a ratio revealing the pressure on environment, rose from 1.71 in 1978 to 7.41 in 2005, increased by 3.32 times, as shown in Fig. 17. Since a larger ELR usually suggests a higher technological level in emergy use as well as a higher level of environmental stress, the increasing ELR in China means that the pressure of economic activities to local environmental resources grew up quickly.

4.5. Emergy investment ratio Emergy investment ratio (EIR), the quotient of purchased emergy divided by the free emergy, can indicate the feedback intensity of the economy. Generally speaking, the higher the investment ratio, the more intensive the environmental use, and the more money circulates, thus the higher economic development level of a system. From 1978 to 2005, the EIR in China rose from 0.05 to 0.49 as shown in Fig. 18, indicating a great development of the Chinese economy. This increase also suggested that the Chinese economy are enriched mainly by purchased nonrenewable

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3.0

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2.0

2.0x1023

1.0 0.0

0.0 1980

1985

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1995

2005 -1.0

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2000

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-4.0

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-5.0

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Z.F. Yang et al. / Energy Policy 38 (2010) 875–886

(P1E+B+N2)-(P2I+G+F) (sej/yr)

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Fig. 16. Exports and imports of China.

8.0 1.00

Environmental loading ratio (ELR)

0.90

6.0

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5.0

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4.0

Ratio

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Emergy investment ratio (EIR) Emergy self-support ratio (ESR)

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0.50 0.40 0.30

2.0

0.20

1.0

0.10

0.0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 year

0.00 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 year

Fig. 17. Trend of environmental loading ratio of China.

Fig. 18. Trend of ratios EIR and ESR of China.

resources, which passed more feedbacks to environmental interfaces and increased the production.

The total emergy input of the Chinese economy is accounted increased from 4.06  1024 sej in 1978 to 1.34  1025 sej in 2005, of which the indigenous nonrenewable input rose from 2.40  1024 to 7.70  1024 sej, greater than the renewable input (R) and the imports (F0 + G0 + P2I), revealing that China has become an increasingly industrialized country dependent mainly on indigenous resources. With the dispersed rural resource such as soil losses, firewood, and forest extraction rose from 8.50  1023 sej in 1978 to 2.51  1024 sej in 2005, and the concentrated use involving mainly minerals and energy from 1.55  1024 to 5.20  1024 sej, the economic development had been associated with a balanced indigenous resource base. Nevertheless, the proportion of the free renewable resources in the total emergy use (U) decreased greatly from 37.1% to 12.4%, revealing the transition from the traditional economy with agriculture as its major industry to a modern economy reliant on concentrated energy sources such as oil and coal. A series of ratios and indices, such as empower density, emergy/dollar ratio, ELR and EIR are calculated and analyzed to indicate the general status of the Chinese economy in terms of environmental resources. During 1978–2005, the emergy use per person and the empower density respectively increased from 4.22  1015 to 1.02  1016 sej and from 4.23  1015 to 1.39  1016 sej, indicating the improvement of real living standard and the

4.6. Emergy self-support ratio As an index indicating the environment contribution to a productive system, emergy self-support ratio (ESR) can be calculated as the percent emergy received from renewable and nonrenewable resources within the national border. The higher the ratio, the less the country depends on resources imported. During 1978–2004, the ESR in China decreased from 0.96 to 0.70 as shown in Fig. 18, indicating that though most of the resources consumed in China came from the indigenous environment contribution, more and more nonrenewable resources imported recent years with a declining economic security.

5. Concluding remarks An integrated ecological accounting of the Chinese economy from 1978 to 2005 is carried out by solar emergy synthesis to measure and aggregate all heterogeneous energy and resources.

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development of the economy. The emergy/dollar ratio declined from 1.87  1013 to 5.87  1012 sej/dollar, implying a declined purchasing power of the real wealth per dollar in China. The environmental load ratio (ELR) growing up from 1.71 to 7.41 and the emergy investment ratio (EIR) rising from 0.05 to 0.49 reflects the increasing dependence on nonrenewable environmental resources and purchased nonrenewable resources. The emergy self-support ratio (ESR) decreased from 0.96 to 0.70, revealing that though indigenous environment contribution still took the major part in the total emergy use, more and more nonrenewable resources have been imported in recent years with a declining economic security. With all the accounted results, the economic development process in China can be divided into four major periods. The first period is from 1978 to 1981, when the China witnessed the economic recovery after ten-year’s chaos in the Great Culture Revolution. The total emergy use increased not much, from 4.06  1024 to 4.71  1024 sej. Of the total emergy use, the fraction of concentrated use is very low and only a small part from imported resources. And the emdollar ratio of this period holds an inconspicuous downtrend from 1.87  1013 to 1.61  1013, corresponding to less investment and slower economic growth, as also uncovered by a stable EIR value about 0.05 and a comparatively low and increasing environmental loading ratio of ELR from 1.71 to 1.91. During the second period from 1981 to 1991, China experienced a great transformation from the planned economy system to the market-oriented economy system. The emergy exchange ratio (EER) rising from 0.97 to a maximum of 1.71 after a shortterm’s decline from 1982 to 1984 reveals that the trade surplus increased quickly because of the rising exports. The emergy of concentrated use increased greatly from 1.56  1024 sej in 1981 to 2.60  1024 sej in 1991, the emdollar ratio decreased from 9.63  1012 sej/yuan to 3.16  1012 sej/dollar, and the environmental pressure kept increasing with the ratio ELR from 1.91 to 3.33. The third period is from 1991 to 2000, when Chinese economy kept in stable development with the total emergy use increasing from 6.89  1024 to 8.63  1024 sej. And the fraction of imports of the total use rose from 5.56% to 18.4% with a decreasing trade surplus, representing a great development of foreign trades and rising foreign trade dependence for China. And the emdollar ratio kept in decrease with a declining purchasing power of the real wealth per dollar, due to a great part of emergy use from purchased goods and materials. However, for the great increase of the Chinese population, the emergy use per person kept almost steady about 6.64  1015 sej/capita during this period. After 2000, China stepped into a stage of rapid growth in all aspects of the economy. The concentrated emergy use was from 8.63  1024 sej in 2000 to 1.34  1025 sej in 2005, showing the trend of accelerated increase as a response to the rapid development of the infrastructure construction. The imported food and agricultural products were more than doubled within the 5 years from 1.03  1023 to 3.39  1023 sej. Also, the ratio of empower density and emergy use per person showed a trend of rapid increase, accompanied with more pressure on environmental resources. The downward trend of the emdollar ratio was decelerated, with the value from 8.81  1011 to 7.27  1011 sej/ yuan, indicating a stabilized economic structure.

Acknowledgements This study has been supported by the National Key Program for Basic Research (973 Program, 2005CB724204 and 2006CB403304), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant nos.

885

40801233, 40871056, 40701023, and 40771001) and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant Nos. 20080430317, 200902057).

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