The essential community local government in the year 2000

of the world. So he has not had to face the problems of non-standardisation, and even of plain lack of data, that plagued our studies of European comparative urbanisation. But that said, the depth of the Glickman analysis still sets it apart. The most striking conclusion comes early on in the book. Japanese cities, for most of the period from 1950 to 197.5, were actually centralising. More and more people were pouring into their equivalent of Standard Metropolitan Statistical LYreas. And, down to 1970, bigger urban areas grew relative to smaller ones-a trend in absolute contradiction to American experience. However, by the early 1970s there was evidence that the biggest metropolitan areas were at last beginning to suburbanise. And the difference in growth rates between the metropolitan and the non-metropolitan areas was starting to From this, and from what lessen. Glickman calls his sense of history, the conclusion is that, after all, the Japanese urban system in the future may come to resemble more and more its American counterpart. These conclusions closely parallel those of European researchers. There too, some parts of the continent continued to centralise down to 1970, but then a partial reversal occurred. It was partial because, there as in Japan, there was as yet no evidence for the most

11Jrban management-does D. Howard

striking of the .American trends-the flight not merely from the central city, but from metropolitan America as a whole, towards the non-metropolitan areas. even the remote ones. There is another striking parallel between Glickman’s findings and those of European researchers. The
sDeculation

help?

Green

The Essential Community Local Government in the Year 2000 Laurence Rutter 176pages, $15.00 (\Vashington, DC:. International Cit, hlanagement Association, 1980) The Essential Community is a new title in the International City Management Municipal (ICbIA) Association Management Series. The book is the end

product of a two year study by IG14;Z’s Committee on Future Horizons of the Profession. The Committee took expert advice from futurists and experts in many fields in an attempt to assess the posrtion of local government in the year 2000. how cities and city administrations

FUTURES Oclobw

1981

will cope with the next 20 years, and perhaps most importantly, how to prepare for change-a look at anticipatory management. The book is structured in live sections: “1\‘elcome to the Year 2000”. “CJrban Managers as futurists”, “A National Settlement System”, “Looking back to the Eighties” and “The Future of Urban slanagement”. Each section is interspersed with quotes, illustrations and extracts from other writers’ works. Common values “!\‘elcome to the Year 2000” sets the scene for the book, and outlines the reasons for looking forward to 2000. It also reveals the values of those involved in the project, and in so doing highlights one of the major weaknesses of what follows. The committee had common beliefs in representative democracy, the importance of strong local government, equity, and the limited importance of government. Much of the book reflects a bland exposition of consensus typical of a committee report. One searches for a dissenting report or view, but none is presented. In the second section, “Looking to the Future”, the theories and methods of futurists are given very summary discussion before an equally brief summary of the five major forces of change. These forces, the justification for which is weak, and which are developed later, include economic forces, demographic shifts, urban patterns, technological changes and politics. There then follows a brief discussion of how the urban manager will cope with these changes. Section three, “A National Settlement System, the Forces ofChange”, presents a review of these changes. The content is fairly standard, enetgy shortages, ageing population and the like, the discussion uninspiring. The Committee’s .conelusions are far from startling. They suggest for example that “the next ten years will bring difficult, though not debilitating economic ad.justments”,

and “the greatest ad.justment will be to learn to live with more expensi1.e Perhaps reassuringly, their energy”. view of the power of technolo
need not only be convinced by the argument, but shown ways of implementation. The general presentation of the book is irritating, scattered as it is with almost random quotations which do nothing to enhance the text. Similarly the style of writing, with the almost lineby-line reference to who said what, as exemplified by “‘But evidence is not the same as truth’ warned Boulding”. is tedious.

Trends

in weapons

it’hat of the overall impact? The publicity material suggests that the book will help the urban manager to cope with the future. There is. however, little new in the book, merely a reinforcement ofcurrent ideas. This is quite acceptable. However the urban manager would be quite justified in concluding, “So what-Ft’hat do I do?-Ll’here do I go?” To these questions the book provides no answers.

and military strategy

Paul Rogers Energy

and

Security,

Gregory

Treverton, ed. 166 + viii pages, L8.50, 1980.

Sea Power and Influence, Jonathan Alford, 220

+

Arms

ed. vi pages, E9.50, 1980.

Control and Military Force,

Christoph Betram, ed. 258 + viii pages, E9.50, 1980. of New Military The Impact Technology, Jonathan Alford, ed. 132 + vi pages, E8.50, 1981.

Crisis Management and the Superpowers in the Middle East, Gregory Treverton, ed. 184 + vi pages, E9.00,

1981.

Strategic Deterrence in a Changing Environment, Christoph Betram, ed. 194 + vi pages, E9.50, 1981. All published for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London, by Gower and Allenheld, Osmun. In the past ten years, many trends in international strategy have become create which collectively apparent conditions of greater uncertainty than have existed for perhaps three decades. These trends include the development of a wide range of precision-guided muniPaul Rogers is a Senior Lecturer at the School of Peace Studies, University of Bradford, Bradford, Lt’est Yorkshire BD7 IDP, UK.

which seriously alter tions (PGM), potential strategies for conventional and tactical nuclear warfare; the development of strategic nuclear weapons systems, which are sufficiently accurate to provide a basis for a first-strike against opposing nuclear systems; and, possibly as important, the proliferation of nuclear weapons. They also include, in a rather different context, one further fundamental trend-that of the increasing dependence by western industrialised nations on energy and raw material imports from less developed countries. In establishing the Adelphi Library, the International Institute for Strategic Studies is seeking to provide readily available papers on such current strategic developments. The first six books in the series cover energy, sea power, arms control, new military technology, the Middle East, and changing patterns of strategic deterrence. This review covers the general trends to which the series addresses itself, and then assesses the value of the series in illuminating these trends.

Precision guided munitions The most significant development in new conventional military technology in the past 20 years has been the rapid deployment of a wide range of precision guided munitions, including air-toFUllJRES October 1981